Brexit reflects a growing global sense of conservatism, xenophobia

Brexit (Britain’s referendum vote to exit the European Union) is a landmark that will be long remembered, but it is part of a process that has been in play for some time — and will continue. It is a process of increasing conservatism, spilling into xenophobia, which is increasingly a part of the political discourse, not only in Britain, but in many countries of Europe and beyond. Donald Trump’s campaign for the Republican nomination, which he wrapped up with amazing ease, is a case in point. That campaign has been more overtly racist, gender-insensitive and more nationalistically inward-looking than the campaigns of most of those who pushed in Britain for their country to leave the EU. Similar political changes have occurred in various countries, including Russia, Hungary and Turkey. This process (increasing conservatism and race-based nationalism) seems to have economic roots. Some link it to the economic crises of 2008 and beyond. It is of course more obviously linked to perceptions regarding terrorism, and to fears regarding the flow of refugees and other sorts of migrants to the West. [caption id=“attachment_2854178” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] So far, however, the process has unfolded fuzzily; its dimensions have not been sharply noticed. If only because of the financial panic the Brexit vote provoked across the globe, it has made the world sit up and take notice. Unless a Trump victory in the US presidential elections overshadows it, Britain’s vote last Thursday is likely to be remembered as the sort of key landmark that becomes shorthand for a process, just as the fall of the Berlin Wall became the landmark event through which the process by which the Eastern bloc came apart is remembered. That process lasted several years, but it is the fall of the wall that lingers in the public mind. In much the same way, the 11 September, 2001 attacks in the US are remembered as the landmark event that represents the antagonism between Al-Qaeda and the West. In fact, many observers tend to think of it as representing the entire range of attrition between Islamist groups such as the Taliban or Islamic State on the one hand, and the West on the other. The Taliban was indeed related to Al-Qaeda; the top leadership of the latter was based in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan during the late 1990s and until the attacks on the US in 2001. However, the two entities (Taliban and Al-Qaeda) had different agendas, geographical foci and operations. Islamic State was born out of the Western invasion of Iraq — in prisons run by the US. It is not Al-Qaeda. The process that Brexit has so dramatically flagged has been in play for some years. Britain has reported several racist attacks in recent years, the US far more, and Paris has been a hotbed of racial antagonism for some years. Germany’s Pegida movement showed overt racism in the winter of 2014-15, and Geert Wilders is the public face of Dutch xenophobia. Hungary’s openly xenophobic government has remained popular. So has Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regime and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. At about this time last year, most liberal observers considered Trump a maverick outsider in the US’ Republican campaign. Jeb Bush was considered the favourite, Trump, a bizarrely comic figure, on the margins. US voters have shown through the primaries that Trump has touched a chord with a wide swathe of the population, even though his campaign is calculated to exclude very large segments of the population. The votaries of ‘remain’ in the EU have celebrated the popularity of the ‘remain’ (within the EU) vote in Scotland, but even that reflects a level of exclusivist nationalism. Scots want to resist an England-dominated United Kingdom; that signifies a negative decision, not necessarily a positive belief in the idea of a multi-cultural, multi-linguistic, multi-ethnic Europe. Northern Ireland too had more ‘remain’ than ’leave’ (the EU) voters. But the ‘remain’ vote there was not an overwhelming majority; only 55.8 percent in Northern Ireland voted to ‘remain’, compared with 62 percent in Scotland. The only demographic segments that clearly endorsed the multi-cultural idea were degree-cum-job holders and urban Britons, particularly in London. Overall, not only in Britain but well beyond its borders, the trend towards exclusivity, racist self-definition and fear about others, and the future, is widespread. It is growing. Brexit has dramatically flagged it. But this is by no means the end of the story.