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No Modi, India's growth story in not just Gujarat

Jan 20, 2014

No Modi, India's growth story in not just Gujarat

The growth story of other BJP-ruled states is not as impressive as that of Gujarat/Maharashtra and at best comparable to some other states with regional leadership. #GDP #Gujarat #Congress #BJP #Narendra Modi #LetterstoFP #Indian Economy #Lok Sabha polls
BJP win lifts markets, but road to economic recovery may be long

Dec 10, 2013

BJP win lifts markets, but road to economic recovery may be long

The function of the markets is to believe what it wants to believe. A bear market factors in only the worst even if there are some signs of turning around. A bull market factors in the best, even if the signals are unsustainable. #Economy #Stock market #GDP #BJP #ToWhatEffect #Indian rupee #Lok Sabha elections #tax revenue
Waiting for Godot Will RBI's wait for a stable rupee be endless?

Jul 30, 2013

Waiting for Godot Will RBI's wait for a stable rupee be endless?

The INR has depreciated by over 25 percent over the last couple of years on the back of many factors including fiscal and current account deficits, rising inflation and falling GDP growth, strength in the US economy relative to the rest of the world and expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) withdrawing its asset purchase program sooner than later. #Inflation #GDP #RBI #Rupee #PolicyWatch #RBI policy
Budget 2013 Weak investment demand will mark fiscal 2013-14

Feb 25, 2013

Budget 2013 Weak investment demand will mark fiscal 2013-14

Fiscal 2013-14 will be characterised by weak investment demand more than anything else. #GDP #Eurozone #fiscal deficit #Budget2013
Budget 2013 No room for tax hikes ties govt hands on revenue front

Feb 20, 2013

Budget 2013 No room for tax hikes ties govt hands on revenue front

Taxes cannot be raised at a time when the economy is slowing down while it cannot be broadened as elections are due in 2014. #Numbers #GDP #fiscal deficit #Chidambaram #Taxation #Budget2013 #Union Budget 2013
Trust deficit in economy is well over 100% of GDP

Nov 02, 2012

Trust deficit in economy is well over 100% of GDP

The reason is no one trusts anyone in the country and that lack of trust has the capacity to widen deficits, bring down investments, slowdown consumption and pull down the economy. #Crony capitalism #GDP
CRR cut Govt plays spoilsport to more robust market rally

Jan 24, 2012

CRR cut Govt plays spoilsport to more robust market rally

The RBI could have offered a repo rate cut if only the government had achieved some measure of fiscal consolidation. #RBI #CRR #Repo #GDP growth #MonetaryPolicy #NotJobsButPassion
Business cycle effect Why our growth will be volatile

Dec 13, 2011

Business cycle effect Why our growth will be volatile

Bad policy may be lowering the Indian economy's trend rate of growth, but the business cycle will give us more volatility in GDP growth. #Inflation #Monetary policy #GDP growth #The Long View #Business cycle #NotJobsButPassion
Higher rates, same growth Something doesnt add up

Jul 27, 2011

Higher rates, same growth Something doesnt add up

Is the RBI's logic right? It has bumped up interest rates, and revised its inflation projections upwards and yet maintains GDP growth at the same 8 percent forecast earlier. #Inflation #GDP #RBI #credit policy #Monetary policy #PolicyWatch