World Cup: After six semi-finals, 2015 might finally be New Zealand's year

In the above podcast, Subash Jayaram speaks with Firstpost’s Pulasta Dhar on whether New Zealand can also be called chokers — and whether they’re the Arsenal of international cricket.

In the ten cricket world cup tournaments since its inception in 1975, New Zealand have played in six semifinals but never have progressed to the big dance. Along with their Trans-Tasman rival Australia, they have been one of the most consistent team in the history of the tournament, with 40 wins in all, but always seem to be the bridesmaid but never the bride.

All that might change in 2015.

The Kiwis are ranked only as the sixth best ODI team in the world, in the ICC rankings, but their recent form and the composition of the team, and add to it the benefit of playing at home, they ought to be respected a lot more than what the rankings indicate.

Since the end of the World Cup in 2011 which India won at home – breaking a long standing trend of teams not winning it all while playing in front of their own fans – New Zealand have a moderate record of 28 wins and 28 losses in 62 ODIs. However, since the beginning of 2014, their W-L record is an envious 15-7 (12-5 at home).

NZ have exemplified the old adage of the whole being more than the sum of the parts in World Cups. They perennially have punched above their weight in global tournaments but in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015, they will not be ‘surprising’ any team.

They are no longer the ‘dark horses’ that topple the more celebrated teams from time to time like when they pulled the carpet from under South Africa in 2011. They enter this tournament, along with South Africa and Australia, as one of the favourites to win it all.

The Black Caps squad is stocked with talent up and down the order, and in all departments. They have solid as well as explosive batsmen, pace and swing bowlers, genuine all rounders, capable spinners, all led by skipper Brendon McCullum who has shown the feel for capitalising on game-turning moments.

The manner in which the format of CWC 2015 is set up, the top 8 ranked teams are almost guaranteed to get to the quarterfinals. From there, it’s about a team putting together a string of three good games to win the cup.

NZ have shown good form from their batsmen and bowlers - they have always been a terrific fielding side – in the lead up to the tournament and would use the six first round matches to achieve the two following things: 1) Find a settled and in-form XI and 2) Finish first or second in the group to avoid clashing with South Africa in the quarterfinal who are expected to top the other group.

As such, there aren’t many concerns for NZ. The conditions would suit their bowlers and even if some pitches turn out to be flat, they have the bowlers with pace through the air in Adam Milne and Mitchell McClenaghan to create wickets.

With the new ball, Tim Southee and Trent Boult will pose difficult questions right through the tournament. The wily Dan Vettori and Nathan McCullum can provide the necessary spin variations to keep oppositions honest on drier surfaces. And, we haven’t even mentioned Kyle Mills, who in many ways is New Zealand’s best one-day bowler.

It is in the batting department that this Kiwi side is quite unlike a lot of its predecessors. In Brendon McCullum, Luke Ronchi, Corey Anderson and Ross Taylor, they have 4 genuine bashers who can turn any game on its head in the space of a few overs.

Kane Williamson has been in the form of his life and is realising the all-world potential he had displayed when he came in to the side as a teenager. In the last five ODIs in the lead-up to the World Cup, Williamson has scored two centuries and two fifties (including a 97).

Corey Anderson was the holder of the fastest ODI ton till recently, when AB de Villiers took it away against the hapless West Indies. Ronchi is just coming off punishing Sri Lanka to the tune of 170 in under 100 deliveries. There isn’t much to be said to further the already established reputations of B. McCullum and Taylor.

What World Cup history has taught us in the last five tournaments, at least, is that the knock-out games are won by teams that are smart about their cricket and have match winners – with bat and/or ball – who can take their teams across on their own brilliance. Think Sanath Jayasuriya and Aravinda de Silva for Sri Lanka in 1996. Or Shane Warne in 1999. Or Ricky Ponting in 2003. Or Adam Gilchrist in 2007. Or Yuvraj Singh and MS Dhoni in 2011.

The only other team that can rival New Zealand for that sort of game-changing individual brilliance is South Africa with AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla and Dale Steyn. Rest of the sides have obvious flaws with flaky bowling attacks and/or fragile middle orders. The edge however lies with New Zealand in that they will be rooted by the home crowds and led by a captain who is quite sensible and calm, and isn’t afraid of taking a gamble or two. And of course, South Africa’s history of…well, you know it already.

Prediction: World Cup winner.

World Cup 2015 Squad: Brendon McCullum (C), Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Corey Anderson, Grant Elliott, Luke Ronchi (WK), Adam Milne, Kyle Mills, Daniel Vettori, Nathan McCullum, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Mitchell McClenaghan, Tom Latham.