Will the three-spinner strategy in Tests work for Virat Kohli in Sri Lanka ?

In the pre-tour press conference in Chennai on 2 August, India’s Test captain Virat Kohli hinted at playing three spinners in the Sri Lanka Test series. [caption id=“attachment_2378392” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  File photo of Harbhajan Singh and Ravichandran Ashwin. AFP[/caption] “Yes, that’s a possibility (three spinners). The idea is to take 20 wickets. I strongly believe that you need to your best bowlers to play in order to give your team a chance to do that.” We all know that Kohli has favoured a five-bowler strategy. But will going in with three spinners really benefit India? Yes, there is a belief that the Sri Lanka pitches assist spin but if you look at the records of Indian spinners in Sri Lanka, they are not that great. In fact the pacers have done better overall in spite of India boasting spinners of the calibre of Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh. In 18 matches, the India spinners have averaged 53.17 at a strike rate of 110.6 with two five-fors and one 10-wicket haul. On the other hand the pacers have averaged 38.67 at a strike rate of 68.4 with three five-fors. The three spinners in the current India squad to tour Sri Lanka are - Harbhajan Singh, Amit Mishra and Ravichandran Ashwin. This is Ashwin’s first tour of Sri Lanka but the worrying factor is that both Harbhajan and Mishra haven’t had a good time on the Island tracks. Harbhajan might be the second highest wicket-taker but he averages 46.92 at a strike rate of 90.6 which is much higher than his career average of 32.32 and strike rate of 68.3. Amit Mishra, in his only match he played, averaged 46.75. It may also be noted that India have played three specialist spinners in a match just thrice in Sri Lanka - In 1985, 1993 and 1997. And they haven’t set the stage on fire. In 1985 the three spinners - Gopal Sharma, Ravi Shastri and Maninder Singh had a combined average of 46.75 and Strike Rate of 133.5. In 1993 the three spinners Anil Kumble, Rajesh Chauhan and Venkatapathy Raju had an average of 46.30 and strike rate of 115.4. In 1997, the three spinners Anil Kumble, Nilesh Kulkarni and Rajesh Chauhan averaged 233.33 with a strike rate of 448. In the recently concluded Sri Lanka-Pakistan Test series, we saw that the pitch was assisting the seamers. There were swing, seam movement and extra bounce. If you look at the numbers, in last 18 months, there is a stark difference between the performance of the visiting spinners and pacers. The visiting spinners have averaged 35.78 with a strike rate of 73.5 while the pacers have averaged 29.24 with a strike rate of 55.1. Considering this evidence, Virat Kohli might want to think twice about playing three in Sri Lanka.