With 18 seats, AAP could be more than kingmaker in Delhi polls: Survey

In survey after survey, the Aam Aadmi Party is fast shifting from being a spoiler in the upcoming Delhi elections to a probable kingmaker. A Times Now C-Voter pre poll survey for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections 2013 has shown that the debutant Aam Aadmi Party is set to play a key role in the 4 December polls and could decide who forms government in December. [caption id=“attachment_1217505” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal. AP[/caption] Indicating a steep rise in support for the AAP, the second C-Voter survey, conducted six weeks after the initial poll, has predicted a 7 percent rise in its vote share, from 20 percent (September survey) to 27 percent (November survey). But going beyond vote share, the survey has also shown a jump of 11 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party, from seven in September to 18 in the November survey, a period of just two months. For the incumbent Congress party, its vote share has dropped two percent from 32 (September survey), to 30 (November survey). In terms of seats however, the Congress drops from 29 to 24. The party, however, has decided to stay away from pre-poll surveys and was not present on the panel discussion. The survey, which was conducted just after the BJP declared Harsh Vardhan as its CM candidate, has shown a negative growth for the main opposition party. While the BJP may have banked on nominating Vardhan as its CM candidate, the survey shows its vote share dropping five percent from 36 percent to 32 percent. In terms of seats, the survey has shown a drop from its earlier prediction of 30 seats to 25. But Vardhan dismissed the projection saying the party was set to win a majority in the upcoming elections saying the party was unified and the AAP was no player in the polls. “We are already on the winning side.. the support I have received all over shows tremendous enthusiasm among the people,” he told Times Now. When asked whether Modi was avoiding the state apprehending a defeat, Vardhan said the BJP’s PM candidate will be back in coming weeks. “As election progresses and once filing of nominations are completed, you will see Modi again in the city… you will see our senior leaders as well,” Vardhan said. In terms of who the Delhi electorate favoured as its next chief minister, the survey has predicted Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal as the city’s favourite. The untested AAP convenor’s support base has risen from 17 percent to an astounding 34 percent. For Delhi’s incumbent Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, the survey predicted a drop in support for whom many considered to be the only face of the Congress party in the state. The C-voter survey has shown a drop of six percent for Dikshit, from 37 percent down to 31 percent. For the BJP’s Harsh Vardhan, the poll predicted a rise from 18 percent in September to 24 percent in November (Harsh Vardhan was not declared the party’s CM candidate during the September survey). Reacting to the survey results, AAP’s Shazia Ilmi said the buzz is around the AAP and it will emerge as a key player. “This is unprecedented and unparalleled… AAP is making huge inroads and even after Harsh was announced, the BJP’s vote share has not gone up… Only AAP has been rising and for a new party this is massive… Only Kejriwal and AAP have been taking on Diskhit,” she told Times Now. Stating that the AAP could emerge to be a king in the elections, senior journalist Vinod Mehta said they could very well form government in Delhi. “AAP is not just the kingmaker but could possibly be king.. If they get 21/22 seats, they could say we won’t support anyone, you support us. There is a widespread feeling that Kejriwal will be a good CM, we are just assuming that he will have to support someone.” The survey results were similar to a CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS Pre-Poll survey conducted last month which predicted a hung assembly in Delhi. The survey had said the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, is likely to get 19-25 seats in the elections, the same for the ruling Congress,  which is also likely to get between 19-25 seats in the 70-member assembly, while the BJP was marginally ahead with 22-28 seats. Can Kejriwal convert his popularity to a crucial victory? Come 8 December and we will know.