New Delhi: The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front may stage a comeback in the forthcoming Kerala Assembly polls, while Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress may retain power in West Bengal, says an opinion poll conducted by CVoter, telecast on India TV on Friday evening. In Assam, the BJP-Asom Gana Parishad alliance, which is locked in a battle with the ruling Congress, may fall short of majority, while in Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK may also fall slightly short of majority in the 234-seat Assembly, says the opinion poll conducted in the first week of March.
In Kerala, the UDF is on a comeback trail.
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's United Democratic Front may be dislodged from power. It has been projected to win 49 seats, compared to 72 seats won five years ago, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear majority in a House of 140. LDF had won 66 seats five years ago. The BJP-led NDA is projected to win only one, and 'Others' will snap up a solitary seat. Vote percentage-wise, the LDF is projected to get 44.6 percent, up by one percent, while the UDF is projected to get 39.1 percent (down from 45.8 percent last time). The BJP is likely to double its vote share; but still that is not good enough to convert into seats. If the BJP vote share goes up further; it will not convert into more seats for BJP; but it is likely to dent the Congress; eventually resulting in a Left sweep.
Corruption emerges as the biggest issue.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her TMC projected to win 156 seats in a House of 294. The party had won 184 seats five years ago. The CPI(M)-led Left Front is projected to win 114 seats (up from 60 seats five years ago), while the Congress' share of seats may shrink from 42 five years ago to 13 this time. 'Others' are projected to win seven seats.
In the state, the TMC and Congress contested as an alliance in 2011.
Their split is giving a big boost to the Left's numbers even though the vote share seems to be going down further. The Congress' performance is now limited to certain areas in north Bengal; which could yield concentrated seats. But a Congress+Left alliance will make the contest very keen. However, it is unlikely that Congress voters will swing over to the Left completely. Vote percentage-wise, TMC's vote share may fall to 37.1 percent from 38.9 percent last time, while the Left Front's share may steeply fall to 34.6 percent from 39.7 percent last time. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 10.8 percent from 4.1 percent last time.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, which is locked in a fierce contest with Karunanidhi's DMK, may fall two seats short of majority in a House of 234. The AIADMK is projected to win only 116 seats, down from 203 seats five years ago, while the DMK's share of seats may rise to 101 from 31 last time. BJP may draw a blank, with 'Others' projected to win 17 seats. Vijaykanth's DMDK was part of the AIADMK alliance in last election. Currently it has been classified under "Others".
The DMK+ includes the Congress. A lot will depend on which way Vijaykanth decides to contest. He still holds around five percent of the votes — which could prove to be critical in the final adjustments of seats. Similarly, the BJP going with the AIADMK could make the state bipolar. Vote percentage-wise, AIADMK's vote share may fall to 41.1 percent, down from 51.9 percent last time, while the DMK-led alliance's vote share may stay stable at 39.5 percent. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to five percent, from 2.2 percent last time.
In the northeastern state of Assam, the BJP-AGP alliance is projected to win 57 seats in a House of 126, seven short of majority. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress party is projected to win 44 seats, down from the 78 it won five years ago. Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front is projected to win 19 seats, one up from last time, while 'Others' may win six.
Voting percentage-wise, the BJP-AGP combine is projected to get 35 percent, up from 33.9 percent last time, while the ruling Congress' vote share may be reduced to 35.6 from 39.4 last time. In Assam the survey was conducted before AGP and BJP tie-up was announced. The AGP figures in this survey are part of "Others". The full impact of AGP+BJP alliance will only be known in the next round of surveys.
After the AGP-BJP tie-up, the NDA's number could increase; but only slightly as the AGP today commands less than five percent of the votes in the state.
However any "strategic" understanding between the Congress and AUDF could tilt the scales against the NDA.
Here's the full report of the India TV-CVoter projections: