Why Ram Vilas Paswan's BJP alliance will hurt Nitish the most

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar could be rueing his decision to split with the NDA over the choice of Narendra Modi as prime ministerial candidate. From all accounts now, it appears that Modi, who Nitish blocked for years from even addressing a rally in Bihar, may have successfully weaned away Ram Vilas Paswan and his Lok Janshakti Party from a possible alliance with the Congress. [caption id=“attachment_1250893” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan. Image courtesy PIB[/caption] While the Congress’s lack of speed and finesse in its negotiations with possible allies could be something for party bosses to mull over, it could well be the Janata Dal (United) and Nitish Kumar who will bear the brunt of the rapid growth in the BJP’s support base in Bihar. Paswan, who has been a minister with the NDA government and in the previous UPA government too, had appeared for the past several months very keen to stitch up an understanding with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad. “An alliance between us and the BJP has been finalised. A formal announcement will be made soon,” former LJP MP Surajbhan Singh was quoted as saying in Delhi after a meeting of party leaders at Paswan’s Delhi home on Sunday. The BJP has also meanwhile tied up an alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) led by Upendra Kushwaha, a former member of the Janata Dal (United). Kushwaha is said to hold sway over the Kushwaha caste group in Bihar, about 6 percent of the electorate in the state. The speedy manner in which the BJP is going about tying up poll alliances with partners in Bihar will definitely have Nitish worried – as chief mover of the so-called federal front of regional parties offering a non-Congress and non-BJP alternative, Nitish was counting on the support of former Socialist party members. With Paswan gone, Nitish loses one anti-Modi voice in the state. Paswan had, after all, quit the NDA in 2002 over the Gujarat riots. With Kushwaha gone too, Nitish also loses a possible addition to his federal front. Already, a Lokniti-CSDS-IBN prepoll survey has indicated that support for Modi is on the rise in Bihar. Based on the survey findings, from 23 percent in 2013, now as many as 39 percent of respondents want Modi as prime minister. The Congress, on the other hand, looks doomed. It was reported earlier  that despite several rounds of talks and meetings in the past month, no decision was taken by the Congress on the alliance. “If required, the Congress can contest all 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar,” Congress leader Sadanand Singh had said, not helping the cause of the proposed tir-up. Earlier calculations had suggested that the Congress would put up candidates for 12 seats, the LJP for seven and the Katihar seat would be left for Nationalist Congress Party’s Tariq Anwar. That would leave 20 seats for the RJD. With the Congress and the LJP apparently demanding more seats for themselves, at least half a dozen LS  seats remained a bone of contention among the Congress, RJD and LJP. Not only is its voteshare expected to remain more or less unchanged (10 percent in 2009 to estimated 11 percent now according to the CSDS poll) but its potential allies look like the losing pack too – Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is expected to go from 19 percent to 15 percent, while Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is expected to see its voteshare erode from 7 percent to 2 percent. Now, with Paswan cosying up to the BJP after waiting in vain for the the Congress to respond positively, the Congress’s chances in Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to Lok Sabha, are bleaker still. Perhaps only Nitish is the bigger loser.