Why Modi's idea of a militarised India is a recipe for disaster

After being anointed as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has in a classic instance of rhetorical grandstanding played to the gallery. He has asserted and beseeched the electorate to throw out the ‘unpatriotic’ UPA for a strong India. Among other things, Modi has also directed his audience’s attention to Pakistan, cross border terrorism and the border skirmishes between India and China. The implication is stark: a BJP-led government will hit out and not be ‘soft’. Modi is obviously playing to the gallery: There is a vocal section of the Indian populace that wants a confrontation with both Pakistan and China and this section feels that India’s response till now has been ‘cowardly’ and that a ‘strong’ India means an  aggressive , confrontational India. [caption id=“attachment_1110911” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Modi at the Rewati rally, displaying an army baton: PTI[/caption] Modi is essentially harping on an old, pet theme of the Hindutva brigade: The soft versus the hard state debate. The Hindutva brigade feels that India needs to be a hard state and this requires an aggressive reorientation of the state. The Hindu – in the Hindutva schema – has long been diminutive and mellow. A new Hindu and Hindustan needs to be carved out wherein the re-engineered Hindu is aggressive and on a bit of a high. This should be reflected in the nature of the Indian state and this would in the final analysis eliminate the sediments that have piled up on the Hindu psyche. The implied and promised confrontation with Pakistan and China gels with this schema and plan. The question is : Can Modi and his brand and version of India be realized? Will India confront China and Pakistan? Or is this merely a vote gathering exercise? Consider a possible confrontation with Pakistan. In terms of conventional warfare, India and Pakistan are clearly mismatched. India can overwhelm and overpower Pakistan in conventional warfare. However, the picture gets more complex with nukes and deterrence in the picture. Whilst there may be disparity in the number of nukes and missiles each country has in its arsenal, the fact that Pakistan has nukes cancels out the conventional war advantage and brings mutually assured destruction (MAD) into the picture. A war between India and Pakistan would be suicidal for both countries; it is then ruled out. Will India attack China? No. Why? The reasons lie in the nature of the military disparity between the two countries, globalization and the nature and intensity of trade and trading linkages between the countries. China is a vast country and it has, in its quest for great power status or in the least regional hegemony, embarked on military modernization where India’s military might pales in comparison. There is also the issue of nukes and then there is an ever-growing trading relationship between the two countries. Also pertinent is globalization by dint of which both India and Pakistan have benefited immensely. These factors militate against a war with China. A confrontation with China and Pakistan will be detrimental to India. What then is Modi doing and what is his agenda? It is quite simple and prosaic. Modi is aiming for votes and attempting to touch the visceral aspect of the collective Indian psyche. In short, he is taking recourse to vulgar and crass rhetorical grandstanding and crude posturing - all for the sake of electoral dividends and power. The Indian electorate should see through this vile agenda; its view should be determined by a sense of proportion and what India really needs. While India is an emerging power and this is quietly recognized by the world’s major capitals, the country has immense issues of a structural nature that it needs to grapple with. A major one is poverty. India does not need confrontation or useless grandstanding; it needs to give its people a life of dignity and honor. This means tackling these problems head on and attending to the real needs and demands of India. A militarized India will be self defeating for India. In today’s world, both the nature of power and strength have changed. War is no longer the arbiter of a nation’s power and prestige. A cue can be taken here from the democratic security communities of the West where power, security, prosperity and harmony exist in a rather seamless fit. A militarized India, to repeat, is a non starter. Modi by building on his carefully cultivated image of a so called strong man is projecting it on to India. First, it is all a web of lies he is creating and second, even if he is serious and sincere in his vision of India, it is a regressive and retrograde vision of India. The Indian electorate must be prudent and wise and see through the tissue of lies he is weaving; and not be carried away by it. India needs to attend to its manifold problems not gyrate and be seduced by the vain and delusional music of the pied piper of Gujarat. Modi is leading the Indian electorate down the primrose path. It is about time that the Indian electorate reject Modi’s false and fictional idea of India and Indianness and relegate him to where he belongs: obscurity.