A BJP probe into Vadra's Rajasthan land deals may not harm him

Rajya Sabha member Bhupendra Yadav tails Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje like a shadow. He is close to Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi. So,when Yadav and four other MPs demand a probe into Robert Vadra’s land deals in Rajasthan, there shouldn’t be an iota of doubt over whose mind he is speaking. So, sooner than later, Raje could announce an enquiry into ‘Damaad ji Ka Karobar’ in Rajasthan. [caption id=“attachment_1305901” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Robert Vadra. PTI image[/caption] From the sound and fury of it, the decision could be taken before the Lok Sabha elections, to give more ammunition to the BJP in the battle. To those who are hoping that Raje will act swiftly and ultimately punish Vadra for his deals, it should be clear that the threat of an enquiry is just a political stunt. It is unlikely to lead to the son-in-law’s conviction. Vadra is likely to walk away without any damage, including financial. But it is a stunt worth performing. In the ongoing game of politics of probe between the Congress and the BJP, Vadra could serve many other purposes. First, as is evident, it gives Modi a talking point against the Gandhis, including their hidden weapon Priyanka. A large section of the Congress has already written off Rahul Gandhi as a bad debt. Die-hard Congress supporters now hope to invest in Priyanka. But if Vadra becomes an election issue, Priyanka is unlikely to step out of her home and face a belligerent Opposition. Pointing the gun at Vadra also helps the BJP lock the Congress in the political equivalent of a Mexican standoff. Home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is threatening to probe Narendra Modi’s role in the snooping scandal, the BJP hopes to restrain the Congress from firing the first salvo by suggesting that it could open fire at Vadra. It would be interesting to see if the Congress and the BJP pull the trigger or decide to back off. Politics apart, proving Vadra’s guilt would be difficult, primarily because of his modus operandi. Since 2009, Vadra’s companies built a huge land bank in the desert districts of Rajasthan. According to estimates, his companies purchased around 10,000 acres of wasteland near power grid substations in Bikaner, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer and Barmer. Buying land from private owners is not illegal. And since his companies paid the sellers much more than the market rate, Vadra can’t be held guilty of any impropriety in the deals, unless he undervalued the land and evaded stamp duty. Vadra’s companies may have violated the Rajasthan Land Ceiling Act by purchasing more land than allowed. If that is proved, the land could be acquired by the government. But here is the catch. Vadra’s companies have sold most of their land and walked away with profit. The buyers are companies with licenses for setting up solar power projects. They purchased Vadra’s plots because they were closest to grid substations (proximity helps in reducing transmission costs and improving profits) and then invested heavily in the project. If the Rajasthan government goes on to acquire the Vadra land, only the current owner would suffer. Any government action would lead to several legal battles, like the one being fought by residents of the Campa Cola building. Vadra purchased the land much before the substations were built or the solar power policy was announced. He was helped by the Ashok Gehlot government, which acquired huge stretches of land around the sub stations for setting up solar parks but left the area closest to them for Vadra. To facilitate returns on Vadra’s investments, Gehlot’s government changed its policies several times. So, both Vadra and the Gehlot government are guilty of complicity and sharing inside information. But proving this could be difficult for any enquiry commission in the absence of documentary evidence. Since the solar power mission is a Central government project, any probe by the Rajasthan government is bound to get stalled by the government in Delhi. In the end, the probe against Vadra may end up just as a poll gimmick. And the crores Vadra made by investing in Rajasthan may continue to remain parked in his bank accounts.