Firstpost

How should one read the verdict of the various municipal polls in Maharashtra, and especially the results in the major metros of Mumbai and Pune, and the big corporations of Thane and Nagpur?

Let’s be clear what did not happen: no clear pattern on incumbency or anti-incumbency emerged.

The results have, thus, to be seen separately – and may be indicative of the larger realignment of political forces that may lie ahead, and which the public has begun to signal.

First, the Sena-BJP win in Mumbai and Thane has proved that the Marathi manoos is a factor in the vote. This is what explains the combine’s near-win in both cities (they will, however, need some independents to run the corporations) despite a stronger Congress-NCP alliance confronting it.

But the vote holds danger signals for the Shiv Sena.

In Mumbai, the Sena lost ground to Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) both in its core central Mumbai constituencies (Dadar, etc) and overall – which is why its total tally fell this year from 84 in 2007 to 76 this time. The BJP made up for it by gaining four seats (28 to 32). The biggest gainer was MNS, whose tally went up from 7 to 28 between 2007 and 2012. The Republican Party of India (Ramdas Athavale)—which entered into an alliance with the Sena-BJP—got one seat. The alliance is clearly not working for it.

Second, it seems clear that the Sena is retaining its hold primarily due to the residual power of Balasaheb Thackeray’s towering personality. After him, there is no guarantee how his son Uddhav will fare. This is clear from the way the MNS has made huge gains in Pune at the cost of the Sena.

Raj Thackeray is clearly making inroads in both Mumbai and Pune. He is also way ahead of the Sena in Nashik. There is a good chance he will inherit his uncle’s mantle when the time comes, given his stronger personality and mannerisms.

Third, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) seems to be gaining in Pune at the cost of the Congress, even with the Suresh Kalmadi factor at work. Apart from emerging as the largest single party in Pune (with seats rising from 42 to 51 versus Congress decline from 35 to 28), the NCP has also increased its lead in the neighbouring Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation from 60 to 84 – again at the cost of the Congress (and the BJP, too, which fell from 9 to 3). Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad establish the Pawars’ growing urban power base – but it remains to be seen if this holds. In Mumbai, the NCP did not add anything to the Congress’ clout.

Fourth, it is only in the Nagpur Municipal Corporation that the national parties have shown robust growth, with both the BJP and the Congress reporting solid gains—the BJP from 56 to 62, and the Congress from 33 to 41. What this indicates is that Nagpur—which is at the heart of Vidarbha—feels left out of the growth process of Maharashtra, and prefers to look at national parties for succour. The demand for a separate Vidarbha—not supported by any of the traditional regional parties—may thus rest on national parties doing something about it.

Five, Thane presents an interesting case where all five parties—Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena, BJP and MNS—improved their showing this time. How can this happen? It’s most likely that they gained at the cost of independents and smaller parties. (Congress rising from 16 to 18, BJP from 5 to 8, Sena from 48 to 53, NCP from 25 to 34, and MNS from 3 to 7).

As Mumbai’s second twin city after Navi Mumbai, Thane has seen huge growth over the last decade-and-a-half and the immigrants clearly see better hope in the big parties rather than independents.

Six, in Nashik, the MNS became the biggest party. The Congress-NCP duo scored in Solapur and Amravati, while the Sena-BJP did so in Ulhasnagar and Akola.

Bottomline: The signs are most ominous for the Congress, and the Sena. The former is  clearly not trusted much in urban India, and the latter faces a threat from the internal dissensions within the Thackeray clan.