UP exit polls 2014 live: BJP to sweep, might get more than 50 seats

10.31 pm: NDTV-Hansa exit polls confirms BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh The last in the series of exit polls, the NDTV-Hansa survey confirmed what the preceding polls had predicted. NDTV said that the BJP will get 56 seats and the tally is most likely to swing between 51 and 61. This goes on to confirm the Congress’ worst fears that their rout with begin with Uttar Pradesh. 7.55 pm: Revised UP figures still point at a massive BJP win in Uttar Pradesh Taking into account figures from the constituencies that went to polls in the last phase, the revised Lokniti-CSDS exit polls, conducted for CNN IBN, show very little change from the previous numbers.The vote shares of NDA and SP have moved by just one percent each and the seat share remains same as predicted earlier. The revised figures indicate that the BJP is set to grab 39 percent of Uttar Pradesh’ votes, as opposed to the 40 percent projected a day back. The SP’s vote-share has risen by a slim one percent to 25 percent. It is now evident that Uttar Pradesh will witness a saffron wash, come May 16. End of updates from 12 May 8.52 pm: Why Uttar Pradesh packed such a shocker for AAP According to its website, AAP decided to fight 76 of the 80 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. Bigwigs like Shazia Ilmi, Kejriwal and Kumar Vishwas decided to contest from key seats. With the Lok Sabha polls in sight, the AAP also came up with a fresh list of issues, including the old ones like corruption. In UP, some of whose districts reel under extreme poverty, communal tensions and disenfranchisement, Kejriwal and company hoped to make a clear headway with its pro-people stance. However, Uttar Pradesh is no Delhi. The first challenge that AAP was faced with is the expanse of the state. Unlike Delhi, which allowed AAP to cover most its quarters within a short period of time, the party had a tough task to familiarise voters to their politics. Then again, its most familiar faces decided to contest again candidates they have very slim chances against. Also, in the Delhi state polls, social media had to play an important role. Given AAP was reaching out to a crowd with access to most social media platforms, their campaign came out stronger and more focussed. The 70 manifestos for the different assembly sections helped AAP reach out to people in a way the other parties couldn’t. They gave Delhi voters an impression of being involved in the city’s welfare actively, of having done its research well. However, in Uttar Pradesh, the party’s poll pitch sounded uncannily like that of others - corruption, development, communalism etc. There was very little UP-specific content in their campaign, something that could serve as a hook for them to latch on to a voter-base largely disinterested in their politics. Unlike in Delhi, AAP could be a BJP or a Congress in Uttar Pradesh. In fact Kejriwal went the whole Hindu-pleasing route by visiting temples, taking a dip in the Ganga etc. Also, like the CSDS-Lokniti tracker showed, the caste equations played a decisive role in this year’s election, something that the AAP completely missed touching upon in Uttar Pradesh. 8.21 pm: Times Now too predicts more than 50 seats to BJP in Uttar Pradesh Unless, all the country’s psephologists have got their seat-math wrong, BJP is going to wash over Uttar Pradesh, clinching more than half its seats. The Times Now-ORG polls indicated that BJP will get 52 seats, Congress 10 seats, BSP 6 and SP, 12 seats. While Congress’ decimation in Uttar Pradesh had been discussed for long, it is AAP’s no-show, which have taken everyone by a little surprise. Kejriwal’s fabulous show in Delhi might have raised people’s expectations, but the fact that he decided to take Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh has affected his fortunes adversely. 7.58 pm: CNN IBN predicts 45-53 seats for BJP in Uttar Pradesh  The result of yet another exit poll strongly hints that Uttar Pradesh might turn out to be a game-changer for the BJP. The Lokniti-CSDS exit polls are willing to give anything between 45 to 53 seats to the BJP. In 2009, the party managed to get just 10 seats. The Congress-RLD alliance which secured 21 seats in 2009, will be reduced to single digits, between 3-5 seats. Sp might get 13-17 seats and the BSP 10-14 seats. The results of the Lokniti-CSDS exit polls, conducted for CNN IBN, shows that the BJP’s vote share could jump by a 22.5 percent from its actual vote share in the 2009 polls. Compared to just 17.5 percent votes in 2009, the IBN exit polls show that the BJP could amass almost 40 percent of the state’s votes, followed by Samajwadi Party which could get up to 24 percent votes. However, one has to note here that the SP is hardly losing its old ground, given that it got around 23.5 percent of the state’s votes in 2009. The biggest loser, predictably, is the Congress which had performed fabulously under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership in UP in 2009. The Congress and RLD’s vote-share in 2009, was 21.5 percent and the Lokniti-CSDS survey, gives just 10 percent to the alliance this time. BSP too is set to lose out on its votes, it’s share sinking to 21 percent from 27.4 percent during the last general elections. Needless to say, Narendra Modi leads the PM choice race. However, the astonishing revival of BJP’s fortunes cannot be attributed to just Modi alone. Sixty four percent of the respondents of the survey were of the opinion that they would have voted for the party, even if Modi was not the party’s mascot or was not contesting from the state. Actually, on 17 percent of the surveys’ respondents said that Narendra Modi was a deciding factor in them voting for BJP. The caste-based vote-share, however, provides a clear picture on what holds the key to the party’s resurgence in the state. Seventy-three percent of the upper caste respondents in the CNN IBN survey said they have voted for the BJP, quite predictably. However, 54 percent of the OBCs and 41 percent of the scheduled castes have also decided to back the BJP in the state making it evident, that the Muslim votes (or the lack of them), has probably no bearing on the BJP’s fortunes this time round. Ratan Mani Lal, reported for for _Firstpost_, ““Not only the OBCs, but even the most backward castes (MBCs) are also getting drawn to the BJP, especially Modi. His identity as a tea-seller has been a big draw, and the neglected communities among the OBCs, such as Kumhars (potters), dhobi (washermen), bunkars (weavers), nau (barbers), badhai (carpenters), sunar (goldsmith) and teli (oil grinders) etc have been convinced by Shah in his own typical manner that it will be Modi, and not Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati or even Rahul Gandhi who can ever understand the ‘pain’ of being marginalized.” Only 8 percent of Muslims surveyed back the BJP, where as 56 percent of their votes go to SP. Only 13 percent of the Muslim votes go to Congress, despite its relentless pandering to the community. 7.00 pm: AAP’s Uttar Pradesh debut will not happen this year Though the Aam Aadmi Party has pitched its strongest candidates in Uttar Pradesh this year, it seems that its dreams of debuting in Uttar Pradesh might not materialise this year, at least. The ABP Nielsen survey predicts that AAP will get no seat in Uttar Pradesh. The primary reason why AAP will be a wash-out in UP this term, probably has to do with the opponents its most popular candidates have chosen. While contesting against Narendra Modi might be symbolic in several ways, it is definitely not a recipe of victory. Varanasi has traditionally been a BJP stronghold with Murli Manohar Joshi winning from the constituency for a while now. Secondly, Arvind Kejriwal possibly didn’t get as much time to campain in Varanasi as he did in Delhi. Kejriwal’s anti-corruption pitch too, has very little bearing on Varanasi’s political narrative, mostly dominated by religion. As the spectacle on Modi’s nomination day showed, Varanasi was not voting Modi, the development guru. They planned to vote Modi, the pro-Hindu political icon. Everything from the saffron colour scheme, to the ‘Har Har Modi’ chant and Modi’s impassioned encomium for ‘Maa Ganga’, indicated that a battle in Varanasi couldn’t be fought on the same issues on which Kejriwal took on Sheila Dikshit in Delhi. One also has to point out here that AAP in Delhi, fought an election in the midst of a strong anti-Congress wave and no particular fan frenzy for the BJP. In Varanasi, he is up against a strong Modi wave in a BJP bastion. AAP’s other star player, Kumar Vishwas, on the other hand has decided to take on Rahul Gandhi in Amethi. Gandhi had defeated his closest competitor by more than 3 lakh votes in 2009, in a constituency which has been with the Gandhis for 50 years. Several reports suggested that, Vishwas has made some definite inroads by talking to voters in their door-to-door campaign, but for television darling Smriti Irani might just reap the benefits of Vishwas’ anti-Congress campaign. 6.30 pm: ABP News predicts a clean sweep by BJP in UP ABP News, therefore predicts 46 seats for the BJP. In 2009, the party had managed to clinch just 10 seats, compared to the 21 that UPA had. ABP gives the Congress just 8 seats, where as SP and BSP get 12 and 13 seats respectively. BJP’s clean sweep can be partly attributed to the strong consolidation of Hindu votes against the Congress and the party’s clever negotiation of the complicated caste equations in the state. Hindustan Times reported that the party, led by Modi and steered by Amit Shah in UP, has turned its focus strongly on the caste issues. The decision must have come on the heels of the realisation that the secularism bait from them is something the minorities in Uttar Pradesh won’t bite as of yet. Especially after allegations of the BJP’s involvement in the Muzaffarnagar riots, the Muslim votes in UP are not something the party can successfully wrench away from the SP. HT reports: “The resurrection formula is apparently to tear into the caste strongholds of SP and BSP and the Gandhi bastion of Amethi. After Monday’s mega show, an aggressive BJP is now even hoping to wrest Amethi from Congress vice-president  Rahul Gandhi by playing the ‘poverty card’ in his constituency. A look at BJP’s strategy in the past three days reveals it wants to regain Poorvanchal at any cost. Modi made that clear through tweets highlighting his backward face.” 6.15 pm: Will Modi win BJP for Uttar Pradesh? With its 80 seats, star MPs and a complicated electoral arithmetic influenced by religion and caste, Uttar Pradesh has always been a state all national parties make a beeline for during the polls. However, the presence of regional parties with comprehensive clout on the state’s politics, have always made the general elections in Uttar Pradesh, a nail-biting one. This year round, the political winds in Uttar Pradesh might well indicate the fate of the parties elsewhere in the country. [caption id=“attachment_1519723” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi. Agencies.[/caption] Narendra Modi, debuting in the Lok Sabha polls this season, decided to anchor his BJP campaign in Uttar Pradesh, even deciding to contest from Varanasi, apart from Vadodara.  Amethi, in UP, is a traditional Gandhi bastion, so is Rae Bareli. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi are fighting from UP. A new entrant in the poll horizon in AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal, who has decided to take Modi on at Varanasi. However, Modi dispatched his best man, Amit Shah to lead the campaign in Uttar Pradesh too. However, the exit poll results indicate, that the presence of various factors have not made the fight a close one. In fact, BJP, led by Narendra Modi, seems to have a clear edge with the closest competition in the form of SP - a party considered to be on sticky ground in the state this year.