The UP option: Modi Bhai chale Lucknow?

Everyone knows Narendra Modi has his sights set on Delhi. But the hot new question is this: Will this dizzying ascent entail a detour via Lucknow? This week, two leading magazines add fuel to the heated political gossip, laying out the contours of a possible Modi-in-UP strategy, laying out both its upside and its risks. Outlook magazine raises the prospect of Modi contesting the next Lok Sabha elections from Lucknow. Why Lucknow? The answer, according to state BJP chief Laxmi Shankar Bajpai: “After all, Lucknow has been one of India’s key constituencies,  not only because it is the capital of the country’s most populous state, but also because it was Atal Behari Vajpayee’s winning turf—he won the seat five times in succession from 1991 to 2004." [Read the article here] [caption id=“attachment_674044” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi. AFP.[/caption] The spark for speculation is the offer made to Modi by the present occupant of that seat, BJP state leader Lalji Tandon, who has openly offered the constituency to him. There is, however, no confirmation that Modi is seriously considering accepting the honour. The ‘Lucknow option’ is best understood as one answer to the bigger question: How can Modi best establish – beyond question – his status as a bona fide national leader, and move beyond the narrow identification with Gujarat? A strong showing in Uttar Pradesh is the answer that is gaining the most credence and buzz within BJP circles in recent days. As evidence, Open magazine points to a below-the-radar informal initiative to lay the foundation [Read the article here]:

In UP, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats, this operation is not to be carried out by any of the known Hindutva outfit, but by an informal organisation that has been working solely on the promotion of Modi’s image as an individual, one who happens to be Chief Minister of Gujarat. It is called the Narendra Modi Fans Club (NMFC), a grouping that Modi himself has nurtured assiduously over the past few years in his home state, and is ready to expand itself across UP. “Narendra Bhai asked me to begin work in UP,” says Khursheed Suma, all-India convener of the NMFC. Recounting the brief-though- firm instructions he was given in Ahmedabad by the Gujarat CM on 24 February, he says, “I didn’t want to go [away from] Gujarat, and I told him this, but he said it won’t help if it is done by a Hindu, ‘So you do it’.”

The first office will be set up – where else? – in Lucknow this month, soon to be followed by a Modi rally in the city. “We are told that the rally would be the beginning of Narendra Bhai’s campaign for the next Lok Sabha election,” Suma tells Open. Playing the UP/Lucknow card makes sense for a number of reasons, as Outlook points out:

For Modi and the party, fielding him from the Uttar Pradesh capital in 2014 might indeed be a worthy, if not risk-free, gambit. The surprise element of jumping right in the middle of his opponents’ formation—in the heart of India’s cow belt—suits Modi’s maverick style. There lingers the possibility of slow-mer­ging his image with the Vajpayee image, which would work to his advantage. And the polarisation bound to follow could help the BJP’s fortunes. From its peak during 1996-98, when the BJP had 50-plus MPs from Uttar Pradesh, it now stands at fewer than 20. The party can look to better itself with Modi’s foray, and its fortunes at the state level could also revive.

The ‘polarising’ effect will likely be welcomed by the local Sangh Parivar honchos who believe that BJP has lost ground by ceding the Hindutva plank, and Modi’s presence will help capitalise on the increasingly divisive climate in a state where communal incidents are on a steady rise. As Open points out, during the Faizabad violence last year, right-wingers pointed raised the slogan, “UP bhi Gujarat banega, Faizabad shuruwat karega.” Of course, the Sangh’s fond dreams aside, Modi may not want to play his assigned role given his determined effort to transform himself from Hindu Hriday Samrat to Vikas Purush. And a UP campaign will turn the spotlight on exactly the parts of his past record that he wants to leave behind. As a top BJP leader from Delhi told Outlook, “Should Modi plunge into Lucknow, it’s bound to lead to a sharp communal divide, compelling all other parties to join hands to defeat the BJP. And Lucknow has a 30-35 per cent Muslim vote, polarisation of which could pose a threat to Modi. He wouldn’t want to take the slightest risk.” Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s mantle may just as easily prove to be a crown of thorns.   Read ‘Riding his Lucknow’ – which includes man-on-the-street Modi reactions in UP – on the Outlook website. Read ‘Modi’s fan club in Uttar Pradesh’ on the Open magazine website to learn more about the NMFC initiative.