The big six who can change the course of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls

With the anti-UPA din reaching a crescendo, JD(U) and BJP wrestling over the necessity of Modi as a prime ministerial candidate and Mamata and Karunanidhi simply giving the Congress a cold shoulder, the 2014 general elections are set to witness a generous share of political fireworks. However, while the political trends in individual states are bound to have a say on who gets the government in 2014, it is six states whose political dynamics will have the heaviest bearing on the national elections next year. These states, according to an article on The Indian Express, are Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. [caption id=“attachment_705714” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representative image. Reuters.[/caption] The article traces how the political equations within parties in these states will be a decisive factor in the 2014 general polls. With the most number of seats in  Parliament - AP has 42, West Bengal has 42, UP has a whopping 80, Bihar 40, Maharashtra 48 and Tamil Nadu 39 - these states constitute more than half of the Lok Sabha. Analysts Pradeep Chibber and Rahul Verma point out that it was the equation of BJP and Congress with these states and decided their political prospects at the Centre for very long. The Congress had a lean patch in the general elections in the nineties because the party had no sway over these six states and didn’t win a single seat there. When it resurged in 2004, it was thanks to its allies in Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. It continued its run by befriending the big political players in Andhra and West Bengal. The Indian Express reports:

On the other hand, the BJP-led NDA lost in 2004 because the party managed to win only 28 out of 310 seats in these six states. The BJP did poorly in UP, lost in Bihar to the might of the Congress alliance, faced the brunt of double incumbency in Andhra, and chose the wrong alliance partner in Tamil Nadu.

The article also points out that the politics of UP is considered to be the microcosm for the national politics of India. However, it has its own ‘peculiar’ dynamics - the equal-strength four party tussle that is typical to just the state. The article concludes:

The central question for the BJP and the Congress, has-beens in the state assembly, is whether they can offer the UP voter a compelling national vision and message.

So with SP hardly making it evident which way it shall swing in 2014 given Mulayam’s Third Front ambitions, Trinamool and CPI(M) turning their noses up at possibilities of all alliances, JD(U) falling out with BJP over Modi, DMK sending mixed signals to Congress and none to the BJP, this general election will be one drama to watch out for! Read the complete Indian Express editorial here.