The Samajwadi Party, riding on the youthful charm and smart leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, is likely to return to power in the state, according to a post-poll survey conducted by CSDS.
We must underline that the survey results estimate only the vote share, not the seat.
The survey predicts that Samajwadi Party is on the threshold of one of the biggest victories in Uttar Pradesh in the last two decades with a likely gain of 9 percent voting on its favour compared to 2007. SP got 25 percent of votes in 2007, which now may catapult to 34 percent.
The survey does not spell well for the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party under present Chief Minister Mayawati which is likely to see a drop of 6 percent of votes to 24 from 30 in 2007. Congress and BJP also fare badly in the polls. The Congress loses 1 percent of votes to 12 percent while BJP slips 3 percent from 17 to 14 percent.
The vote shares are based on the first six phases of elections in Uttar Pradesh and include RLD's vote share in the Congress kitty. The RLD figure for 2007 is also included in the Congress data even though the party fought the then elections independently.
Significantly, the data shows a remarkable leap for Samajwadi Party in all four regions of Uttar Pradesh.
The party is ahead of the ruling BSP by 12 percent in Poorvanchal, by nine percent in Awadh, by six percent in Pashchim Pradesh and in Bundelkhand it pips the Congress and RLD combined by six percent.
Unlike Mayawati's BSP, Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP is likely to retain its core voters and make massive gains among other communities.
Among core voters, the percentage towards SP although fell by five percent to 68 among Yadav. But the Muslims made an increase of two percent to 51 percent as compared to 2007.
Among the other voters, the Kurmi Koeri favoured the SP massively with a 21 percent increase taking the figure to 38 percent. The Jatavs also showed an increase of 17 percent towards the SP pushing the figure to 21 percent.
Going by earlier trend, the Jatavs are traditionally BSP supporters. However, the survey revealed that the BSP lost a whopping 27 percent of its Jatav voters this time forcing the figure down to a paltry 59 percent.
The BJP also made a big fall in almost all its traditional bases of voters. Eighteen percent Rajput voters chose to vote against the party, a massive blow to the figure of 26 percent in the last assembly polls in 2007.
The Congress too failed to make any headway despite Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi's relentless campaign in the state.
It may be worth mentioning that Mulayam Singh Yadav is the top choice for the post of chief minister, as per the survey. He beats everyone to the likes of Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati, BJP's Rajnath Singh and even his own son Akhilesh Yadav by a fair margin in the race to the state's top executive post.
The survey was conducted in 83 constituencies covering 318 polling stations for which a sample size of 5,817 was achieved.
Uttar Pradesh Post Poll 2012
In a survey conducted by CNN-IBN, 38 percent people want Mulayam as the UP chief minister followed by Mayawati with 22 percent. Watch the video below: