Rahul's entry all guns blazing may fell Lalu, entice Nitish

Rahul Gandhi’s criticism of the government’s ordinance to rescue convicted lawmakers may have had multiple targets, but for Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose fate in a fodder scam case is set to be decided soon, the Congress Vice-President late discovery of idealism couldn’t have come at the worse time. While other allies remained mum after Rahul’s outburst, the Rashtriya Janata Dal minced no words. “An elected government has all the right to make any law or enact a piece of legislation…its shocking the way Rahul Gandhi pulled up the party government,” Abdul Bari Siddiqui, a senior leader of the party and the only one to react, said. Lalu, uncharacteristically, maintained a stoic silence. The former Bihar Chief Minister may have escaped in many of the cases against him in the Rs 950 crore fodder scam, but this time the stakes were higher. If a Jharkhand court is to find him guilty in its verdict on 30 September, he stands to lose out on his chance to go back to Parliament next year.   [caption id=“attachment_1139269” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Does the RJD chief stand to lose the most? PTI[/caption] Lalu holds one of the three seats the party has in the Lok Sabha and the party’s hold over the state has steadily slipped over the years. Given the scenario, Lalu met with Sonia Gandhi last week where he reportedly expressed his concerns over being convicted and following that the Congress sprung into action on the ordinance. A CNN-IBN report pointed out how a week later the core group of the Congress met on 21 September and less than a week later the ordinance was approved and passed. Law Minister Kapil Sibal is being seen as the Bihar Chief Minister’s biggest ally in the cabinet having been elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar in 1998. An India Today report points to the fact that his proximity to the PM and the RJD chief had led to him to push for the legislation. Lalu also happens to be in party president Sonia Gandhi’s good books, having defended her during the controversy over her foreign origins, points out a Business Standard article.  And given that he headed the biggest opposition party in Bihar before the BJP left the government, he isn’t entirely dispensable for the Congress. And it doesn’t help that Nitish Kumar has chosen to keep his political cards close to his chest so far. The UPA has, in the past, pulled out all stops to save Lalu in the past , even dissolving the Bihar Assembly in 2005 to save the RJD government. The RJD chief has since shared a cosy relationship with the Congress. However, the Congress Vice President doesn’t have any such association with Lalu and, if anything, had a bad experience during the 2009 polls when the party was allowed by Lalu to contest only four seats in the state. While some see it as enforcing his authority against ministers like Sibal, others see it as the biggest overture Rahul Gandhi could be making towards JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar ahead of the 2014 polls. But the outburst could also be cold mathematics to ensure the Congress isn’t decimated in the upcoming state elections. A  Hindustan Times report says that the Congress V-P was warned by key allies that the party’s prospects in the upcoming elections only stood to be hit if the ordinance was passed just ahead of them_._  According to an India Today report, Rahul doesn’t have the highest opinion of ministers like Sibal and Salman Khurshid, who he believes don’t have mass support, but continue to enjoy his mother’s confidence. So the decision to go against them may not have been as hard as it would seem. As _Firstpost_ had pointed out , Rahul’s outburst may have been directed either at the PM, the Congress old guard or even the masses ahead of the next general elections by nixing the ordinance. However, on 30 September, Lalu will find out whether he will be the one paying the price for Rahul’s sudden opposition to a legislation that was one step away from being passed.