Poll Tracker: NDA makes huge gains, set to win around 230 seats

With the battle dates for the Lok Sabha polls finally announced, the country is increasingly anxious to know who will form the next government. Politics being a game of last minute surprises is especially true of India, so no one really knows what the final answer is. However there are a few factors we can see now, that could really shape the formation of the Lok Sabha: [caption id=“attachment_1422725” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. AP[/caption] At one level there is the Modi factor, in another there is the resurgence of Rahul Gandhi, and then again there is a new federal front with leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalithaa, and last but not least, the 10-party ‘Third Front’ team which comprises veterans like Mulayam Singh Yadav. However, in this labyrinthian architecture of Indian polity, the one party that has risen above the rest for now is the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Lokniti-IBN Tracker Survey that was conducted across six key states—Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Delhi—found that the BJP had made considerable progress in the last two months. The sample size of the survey was 8,741 in January and 9,104 in February. “We are happy that we are making progress. But we are not satisfied with the 220-230 mark for NDA. Our mission is very clear which is Mission 272+,” BJP spokesperson Smriti Irani told CNN-IBN during a panel discussion.  Nationalist Congress Party chief spokesperson Devi Prasad Tripathi did not agree that the path is completely open. “Any alliance which forges a combined strength of 100 members will be decisive. The NDA should realise that the number of non-NDA members is much larger in Parliament. All secular fronts including the Congress and the federal front should unite to take on the BJP,” Tripathi said. The NCP leader, however, admitted that there are problems ahead for the UPA, especially given that it has remained in power for 10 years continuously. Trinamool Congress spokesperson Derek O’ Brien who was also on the show, made it clear that the party is not seeking an alliance with the BJP. Disagreeing with the survey findings, he instead vouched for the federal front. “There will be no tie up with the BJP. With the Left getting left out as we saw in Tamil Nadu today, the scene for Trinamool Congress will improve even more. For that reason I don’t believe your numbers,” Brien said. “We are very optimistic about chief ministers for example, West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Tamil Nadu etc. who have done good work in their respective states. Let me also tell you that Mamata Banerjee is not keen to be prime minister. She said any competent leader like Jayalalithaa or Nitish can be the prime minister. This is a non-issue for us,” he said. Despite the noise the party that is really finding it tough to make a mark nationally is the Aam Aadmi Party. “There is tremendous disappointment and anger with the UPA. In fact, the UPA may perform even worse than the numbers that the survey revealed. About us, the AAP is actually making it a battle of substitute versus alternative. By raking issues like KG basin and Reliance Industries, Arvind Kejriwal may succeed in bringing more seats for the party,” said AAP chief spokesperson Yogendra Yadav. “Our attempt is to have a presence in the first election and not to win it. We are allowing more Indians to express through us,” Yadav said.