No can do: Experts nix Modi as PM in 2014

“No He Can’t” blares the cover of the latest issue of Outlook magazine which marks the inevitable pushback to the triumphant narrative that has dominated headlines since Narendra Modi’s anointment as BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister. Outlook’s prediction, based on the ground “expert” predictions, is offered as a reality check to the innumerable stories on Modi’s personal popularity. The bad news for the BJP: the numbers just don’t add up to victory. The problem, according to Neelabh Mishra, is that NDA has no room to grow. They have already maximised their gains in traditional strongholds in the North and West — think MP, HP, Gujarat, Goa etc. And even large gains in other states in these regions — Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi and Maharash­tra — will still leave NDA 90-100 seats short. [Read the results and analysis here] The gains the NDA may have in the north and west will be undermined by losses in Karn­ataka, till recently its only southern bastion. And with his departure from the coalition, Nitish seems to have ensured that even if the BJP gains a few seats in Bihar, the NDA would be down in that state: it had won 32 seats last time; this time it could be half or a third of that number_… even in UP, the BJP can’t hope for more than 30 of the 80 seats: the electorate is fractured and the Muzaffarnagar and Ayo­­dhya gambles of the BJP and SP may have caused a polarisation detrimental to both. If the BJP’s tally touches 30, that will be thrice the present number—it’s difficult to see any more accruals._   [caption id=“attachment_1127641” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  So is Modi’s anointment short-term gain or long-term calculation? AFP[/caption] South and East India will stymie Modi’s PM aspirations in 2014, but that’s alright with the RSS which, Mishra argues, is playing the long game. Its chief pracharaks are willing to endure political isolation in the short run in order to pave the way for “a completely Hindutva dominated NDA-II” of the future. To spell out Mishra’s somewhat vague thesis, 2014 is not an election to win but to shift Indian politics rightward. Even a strong showing with Modi at the helm will make the prospect of a unashamedly Hindutva government more palatable, perhaps even inevitable. It’s an interesting argument except another Outlook story in the same issue argues exactly the opposite: That the BJP has sacrificed its collective tradition of leadership at the altar of personality-driven politics for immediate electoral gain. The impending Lok Sabha polls has pushed the BJP to eclipse its entire galaxy of leaders behind the shadow of one man who the party thinks can deliver it the mandate. For long a cadre-based, ideologically oriented party, it’s now trying to transform itself into a single leader-driven, result-oriented one which will be guided by the tools of marketing. Hand-wringing over BJP’s internal democracy aside, how does this momentous decision make sense if Modi can not — as Outlook claims — deliver the required 200+ votes? Surely, it would then mean that BJP’s own polling indicates a big Modi dividend, similar to the C-Voter poll in May which predicted that the NDA minus Modi – with Nitish Kumar in tow – will get a paltry 179, but the seat count shoots  to 220 with Modi in charge. So is Modi’s anointment short-term gain or long-term calculation? Foolhardy gamble or far-sighted investment? Nobody knows, including the divided and ambivalent BJP leadership. More importantly, most voters haven’t made up their mind, either. And it is likely that none of us will know until the actual votes are counted. In the mean time, there are  polls and pundits galore. Do read the state-by-state breakup and the rest of the analysis on the Outlook website.