NDA gets 229, UPA 129 but Modi faces a last mile challenge: survey

BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is almost there but not quite — and this shortage if not plugged timely, may pose a real threat to Modi’s prime ministerial dreams. Former The Hindu editor N Ram puts it aptly. “BJP under Modi may face a last mile problem. They might not enough seats as the UPA had got 262 in 2009.” [caption id=“attachment_1435297” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Elections start in April. AFP[/caption] According to a survey carried out by the Hansa Research Group for NDTV, the NDA is likely to get 229 seats while the UPA is likely to win 129. The survey gave alternate front 55 seats and the others got 130. Significantly, the others include parties like Trinamool Congresss and the AIADMK. Independently, the BJP is likely to get 195 seats and the Congress 106. Before the complete picture was given, a few of the key states were also analysed. UTTAR PRADESH With 80 seats, the country’s biggest state Uttar Pradesh is the largest pie, which every political party will want to have. But having the largest bite is not so easy as the BJP may seem to make it in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. CLICK HERE for the first part of the opinion poll that NDTV carried out recently: BJP way ahead of Cong in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, says survey. Senior journalist Sharat Pradhan, “Muslims are disillusioned with Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Muslim votes are drifting towards the BSP. But is Modi winning over the moderate Hindu shedding his Hindutva image.”. [caption id=“attachment_1435235” align=“alignnone” width=“300”]  Source: NDTV[/caption] Columnist and author Sudheendra Kulkarni said, “Spectacular performance by the BJP with a jump from 10 (2009) to 40 seats. This result could propel the BJP to a winning position at the Centre.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 40 BJP - 40 (+30) BSP - 15 (-5) SP - 13 (-10) Congress+RLD - 12 (-14) PUNJAB The BJP still has a lot more to do to beat the Congress in the state where parliamentary elections are concerned. As per the survey, the results are more or less similar to that of 2009. Kulkarni said, “Repeat of results is happening due to the fact that the BJP is not very much united in the state.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 13 Congress - 8 BJP+SAD - 5 ASSAM When it is Assam, it is Congress all the way as the party is likely to raise its tally from seven in 2009 to 13 this year. The Indian Express editor-in-chief, Shekhar Gupta said, “People of Assam are angry with AGP as the people in West Bengal disdain Left. It will really take somebody to defeat the Congress.” Kulkarni said, “The BJP is not united in Assam. They had to appoint former AGP leader Sarbananda Sonowal as its president.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 14 Congress+AIUDF: 13 BJP: 0 AGP: 0 Other: 1 ODISHA The rise of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is evident with the manner the BJD is going to perform in the next polls. Increasing its tally from 14, the party is likely to grab three more seats to make it 17. On the other hand, the survey showed that the Congress is losing three seats, which means they’ll have three less than its tally in 2009 (6). Seat tally Total number of seats: 21 Biju Janata Dal: 17 (+3) Congress: 3 (-3) BJP: 1 (+1) SEEMANDHRA For a new party like YSR Congress, it is a kill with the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led party likely to win 15 seats out of 25. On the BJP-TDP alliance, political analyst K Nageshwar said, “TDP is looking for a long term relationship with the BJP. They have realised that they would have to go for a post-poll alliance anyway with the BJP, so why not a pre-poll one.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 25 YSR Congress: 15 (+15) BJP+TDP: 9 (+5) Congress: 1 (-20) TELANGANA The Congress won’t be too happy to see its tally in the state. By going out all out to create the state of Telangana, the party had hoped for some big electoral dividends but the TRS is appearing as the spoiler. Nageshwar said, “The number of seats TRS is getting in Telangana will be won by itself even without an alliance with the Congress. So the TRS doesn’t want to subscribe to the UPA immediately.” Kulkarni said, “BJP is losing both in Seemandhra and Telangana. Congress has hurt itself much in Seemandhra without much gain in Telangana. Also there is no pre-poll alliance with the TRS.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 17 TRS: 11 (+9) Congresss: 5 (-9) Others: 1 (-2) KERALA India’s southernmost state has very little to offer to the BJP but the Congress could make some gains in the form of UDF as per the survey. India Today, associate editor, MG Radhakrishnan said, “Because of the Modi factor there is a consolidation of support for the UDF from the minorities which is giving it an edge over LDF.” Seat tally Total number of seats: 20 UDF: 13 (-3) Left: 7 (+3)