New Delhi: Regional parties currently outside the ambit of both UPA and NDA will hold the key to formation of next government at the Centre in 2014 with BJP-led alliance projected well ahead of the ruling UPA headed by Congress, an election survey today predicted.
The study carried out by India TV-Times Now C Voter-Survey based on national representative sample of 24,284 randomly selected respondents between August 16 and October 15 projects huge losses for Congress in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Kerala, where it had got a good number of seats last time, good gains for BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and a reversal of fortune in Rajasthan.
At a time when Assembly elections in the four states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chhattisgarh are being touted as some sort of semi-finals for next general elections, the survey predicts huge reverses for Congress in the first three states with Chhattisgarh being the only silver lining for it.
According to the survey, NDA that includes BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, RPI (Athawale) NCP of Meghalaya and Haryana Janhit Congress, will get 186 seats, while UPA with its current allies is pegged at a drastically low number of 117 seats.
In 2009 Lok Sabha, the ruling combine had got 259 seats, while NDA had secured 159 seats. The allies of Congress, whose performance has been included in UPA this time are NCP, RLD, JMM, Muslim League, National Conference and Kerala Congress (Mani).
The key to power at the Centre will be held by 'Others' -- mainly regional parties like AIADMK, SP, BSP, Left Front, Trinamool Congress, RJD, BJD, YSR Congress and TSR -- which are together expected to notch up a whopping 240 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.
'Others' also lead when it comes to getting the maximum vote share. While regional parties falling in this category are expected to corner 38 per cent of total votes, NDA is still way ahead of UPA with 35 per cent in comparison to 27 percent of the latter, the survey says.
The difference between the number of seats of Congress and BJP further widens with the survey projecting Congress as winning a mere 102 seats and BJP getting 162 seats. Last time, Congress had won 206 seats and BJP 116.