Narendra Modi's future is bright, but it won't be without obstacles

New Delhi: Goa has proved to be lucky again for Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. The first time was in April 2002, in the immediate aftermath post-Godhra riots. There he not only managed to keep his position as Chief Minister, but also emerged stronger after the meet, notwithstanding the reservations of then party leader and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The state assembly was dissolved, elections were declared and he went on to win the state for himself and the party. And now Goa is again the location of his latest triumph: Being officially declared chairman of the campaign committee for the 2014 parliamentary poll, notwithstanding the reservations from party patriach and his one time mentor LK Advani. [caption id=“attachment_855697” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Modi at the BJP meet earlier: PTI[/caption] The task for him is clear cut, win the upcoming parliamentary elections for himself and the party. If in 2002 it was Advani and peers like Pramod Mahajan who pitched strongly for him, 11 years later it was pressure from below, from the rank and file that propelled him to this position of first among the equals, the de-facto leader of the party. 9 June 2013 marks the beginning of the Narendra Modi era in the party, and the eclipse of the Vajapyee-Advani era that guided the Jansangh and the BJP for close to five decades. More so, because the big announcement was made by BJP’s Rajnath Singh in the absence of Advani. Though the voices emanating from ordinary workers and intermediary level leaders very strongly rooted for Modi, his advent on the national stage was mired by internal discord. The announcement was a picture perfect moment in the much talked about absence of Advani. The party chief flanked by senior leaders Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu and others, all looked more grim than buoyant. No questions were taken. Even man of the moment, Modi preferred to stay inside the hall than come into the courtyard with his peers for the announcement photo-op. However the turn of events in the last few days have seen two distinct positives for Modi. The first is the ground swell of support that he clearly generates from BJP party cadre across the country, which has forced even the RSS to sing his virtues. The second, is his sudden rise in acceptability outside of his party sympathizers. He is now being seen as a ‘rising sun’ by even sections of his erstwhile critics who have blasted Advani for causing obstructions to his elevation. Modi’s charisma is at work. Modi has the capacity to transform this into popular votes for the party. He also has a great ability to swing political discourse and make Congress uncomfortable with his barbs about Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh. If Rahul’s much hyped India being a beehive remark was turned into a Bharat Mata versus Madhumakhi Ka Chatta by Modi, today he punched holes in UPA’s Bharat Nirman ads punchline “Mera Haq” (my right) into Mera Shaq (I suspect). The recent by-poll results have also boosted the morale of Modi supporters and Modi the administrator, Hindutva poster boy, development messiah also takes a new avatar as an OBC leader, the first potential leader from the numerically dominant community. That appeal could work well in regions in traditional BJP strongholds like UP and Bihar. But beneath the hype and euphoria around Modi’s elevation is the stark reality that the party’s organizational health is bad. Advani’s much talked about conditional nod to Modi’s anointment represents just a fraction of the problems that plagues the party. Beyond his charismatic appeal to the workers and middle class, Modi will now have to work on many more challenges to make the BJP a battle worthy machine. It also has to be pointed out that the BJP has not yet declared Modi the Prime Ministerial candidate, something that was initially desired by his supporters. They now say that they have cleared the first hurdle, adding that the PM candidate announcement will come in due course. There are others who say that since he has been made campaign committee chief, there is no need to make the other big announcement. “If he had to be made the PM candidate where was the need to make him campaign committee chief. This is an indirect projection with an eye on keeping the NDA intact till the time we can", a BJP leader said.  The battle lines could sharpen if Modi supporters insist on making the PM candidate announcement and even Rajnath Singh who piloted the current move may not be comfortable is pushed into signing off on the other order. Modi has successfully proved in Gujarat that he can eliminate dissenting voices and create a new parallel structure, but the national party set up could be a different game. Even if Advani was discounted for now, the fact is that if Shivraj Singh Chouhan leads BJP to a third consecutive victory in Madhya Pradesh, it will not be possible to sideline him, because of Advani’s preference for him. With his humble mannerisms and deep RSS background, he too would be a force to reckon with. It it is not without significance that in his brief sound bite Shivraj Singh kept on mentioning Advani’s name. The next round of assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and possibly Jharkhand are very important for the party. Though a major portion of credit or blame for victory or defeat would go on a Shivraj, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje, the election results will shape Modi ’s eventual poll pitch. Apart from Gujarat and Goa, the BJP lately has lost Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Jharkhand. The BJP has to regain its strength in these states, particularly in Karnataka where like UP, the party has been reduced from number one to number three position. Modi has to make that turnaround in UP and Karnataka. While Modi supporters would hope that the party soon designates him PM-in-waiting, from today onwards Modi personal office in Gandhinagar is a parallel power centre, more powerful than 11 Ashoka Road, the BJP headquarters. The main difference between Modi, Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley, the two other leaders who had earlier served as campaign committee heads, is that while they were assigned this job out of Delhi by the leader to pave the way for an eventual party victor , Modi will do it for himself to advance to 7 Race Course Road. Until then then someone else will manage 11 Ashoka Road for him..