Modi manifesto targets right demographic group

The BJP election manifesto for Gujarat is yet another proof that Narendra Modi is probably the only leader in the BJP who is thinking of the demographic shift taking place in India - and preparing for it. It takes the BJP in the right direction in Gujarat, and sets the agenda for India over the next decade. It is easy to say that what works in Gujarat may not work nationally, but demographically, what Gujarat is today is what India as a whole will be 10-15 years down the line: urban, middle class and still young. Unlike other political parties, which are focusing on bulk votes from the rural sector (a declining vote bank) or minorities (again, a declining vote, since the minorities are now more urban than the so-called Hindu majority), Modi rightly sees the new aspiring classes as the right demographic to cultivate. These are people who are just leaving poverty behind and have joined the consuming classes at the bottom end of the middle class pyramid. They are the most important vote bank for the future. They are the people the Congress is trying to retain in rural areas by tying them to pork-barrel schemes like NREGA and Food Security and cash transfers.[caption id=“attachment_544495” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. PTI[/caption] The Modi manifesto talks of building 50 lakh homes for the urban and rural aspiring classes, modernising madrassas, creating a network of youth hostels, and offering self-employment loans with government guarantees – among other things. Then there are some tiny messages on social change (help for mass marriages), and tribals, with a tinge of Hindu messaging (Shri Ram Pagdandi) and references to cow protection thrown in. But the broad message is urban middle-class oriented. This is where Modi’s message for Gujarati voters blends well with his plans for a national role some time in 2013-14, whenever general elections are held. The core of Modi’s vote will come from the urban areas, the new consuming class, the young – a big chunk of whom could broadly be lumped under the phrase “neo middle class”, a phrase coined by Modi’s Gujarat manifesto. Those who already think of themselves as middle class are his core voters in Gujarat anyway. The key concerns of this new class are upward mobility, education, affordable housing, availability of basic urban services (water, power, transport) and such-like things. This is the emerging class, which, along with the old middle class, was most attracted to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption movement. Even though this group has since disintegrated into Team Anna and Team Kejriwal, the urban middle class – though theoretically wedded to anti-corruption, is more interested in moving up rather than just having a saintly administration that goes nowhere. This middle class is probably moving away from Kejriwal’s excessive obsession with all kinds of sensational exposures, without a clear focus on governance and delivery of services to the public. This is the class that will find a Modi—who promises governance—attractive. Modi’s manifesto addresses them, and the demographics are moving in his direction. In Gujarat itself, this class is already the dominant vote bank, as the state is 43 percent urban, and young voters form the overwhelming core of the electorate in the state. Out of a total electorate of 3.78 crore in 2012, some 2.05 crore are in the 20-39 age group. Of them, one crore are in the 20-29 segment, reports The Hindu. In contrast, India is 32 percent urban, but it will be closer to the Gujarat numbers in terms of urbanisation and middle class voters over the next 10 years. According to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the Indian middle class will swell to 267 million (26.7 crore) over the next five years. Most of these numbers will be urban. The bulk of them will be in the southern and western states. By 2030, India will have 600 million people living in urban areas – up from around 350 million right now. The problem for India’s political parties right now is that the bulk of their MPs still represent largely rural areas, and barring highly urbanised states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, this is what is driving current policies – whether it is NREGA or Food Security or cash transfers. But this scenario is bound to change dramatically over the next 10 years, and Modi’s manifesto suggests that he is looking at the future. The problem for Modi is that his own party is currently run by people who have no clue on which way the wind is blowing. The RSS, which appointed the current party President, is still mired in the past (even though Gadkari is hardly a throwback to the past, despite his Purti misadventures). And the top BJP leadership is taking up economic causes that are far removed from the concerns of the urban middle class, and especially young voters. There’s little mention of housing, or retail – which the party is actually opposing. This is what Modi (62) will have to fix first, if he becomes the party’s prime face after the state assembly election. The problem for the Congress is different. It has a potential PM in Rahul Gandhi who (42) is in the right age group for the future, but his policies are taking us backwards – more doles, more handouts to win elections. If it does turn out to be Modi versus Rahul fight in 2014, this will be the paradox: a 64-year-old politician will be targeting the right growth segments in the electorate, and a 44-year-old scion who is still fighting yesterday’s battles. Modi’s national future thus depends on getting this core vote for the BJP, and then banking on other allies to get the rest of the vote in a country that lags the Gujarat-Maharashtra-Tamil Nadu demography.