Modi effect: Vasundhara Raje gets a freehand in Rajasthan

Jaipur: Vasundhara Raje and her dozen ministers should be grateful to Narendra Modi. But for him and his current brand of politics, Raje’s cabinet that was announced on Friday could have been a disastrous mix of sworn enemies, loyalists and those propped up by the Sangh.

Raje has, instead, managed to pack it with people with a singular ability: loyalty. Her rivals, regardless of competence, credibility and seniority, have been dumped ruthlessly. Nobody has so far uttered a murmur of protest.

A cursory look at Raje’s cabinet reveals she is getting unimaginable freedom in Modi’s BJP. The message is clear: Raje is the Boss. Others can either applaud, like Gulab Chand Kataria who was her competitor till recently but is now just one of her ministers. Or they can go home, like Ghanshyam Tiwari who once dreamt of challenging her but now finds himself just an ordinary legislator among 150 others.

To understand the Modi effect in Rajasthan, it is important to go back to a front-page headline in the Times of India in October past year. The story claimed that Raje was about to split the party with the help of her supporters.

Raje did not react officially to the news. The split never happened. And the story was forgotten. But it was rumored that the idea had been planted by the Raje camp to force the BJP high command to appoint her president of the Rajasthan unit.

Raje’s plight after the BJP’s defeat in 2008 till February this year justified the rumoured split. For four years, she was marginalized, her supporters like Rajendra Rathore—now a minister—were suspended from the party for speaking up in her favour and the Kataria-Tiwari duo was allowed to torment her.

But things changed in February after Modi won Gujarat and took charge of the BJP. First, Raje was made the state president in spite of the fact that Rajnath Singh, the man who had forced her to resign after the 2008 debacle, had become the BJP’s national president. And second, she was allowed to run the campaign and select candidates without external pressure.

Since nothing is free in politics and every favour is to be returned, Raje’s time to pay back has come.

Modi wants Raje to put all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan in his basket. In 2009, the BJP won just 4. With the Congress in disarray, Raje is expected to succeed in Mission-25, the favourite phrase within the BJP these days. Anything less than 20 seats would be a disaster, 22 a consolation and 25 the expected result.

But that is just the visible part of the bargain.

Ironically, by giving her everything she wants, Modi may also be keeping Rajasthan under his control and reducing the party’s reliance on a single leader.

For those watching Rajasthan, it is apparent that Raje’s stature as the only BJP leader in Rajasthan has diminished. Though Modi comes from adjoining Gujarat, he has acquired a huge following in Rajasthan.

On 8 December, when Raje reached the BJP headquarter in Jaipur after the landslide victory in Rajasthan, those watching the melee were stunned by chants of ‘Modi-Modi’. Even earlier, at rallies addressed by both the leaders, the clamour for Modi always drowned Raje’s voice.

Till a few months ago it was believed that the BJP would die in Rajasthan without Raje. But this has changed now with Modi becoming the party’s mascot and the cadre’s voice. Nobody is indispensable now.

The Modi effect would also be seen on governance. Raje’s previous tenure was tainted by numerous allegations. Though none of the charges could be proved, her government was never considered a model of honesty and transparency. It is unlikely that Modi would tolerate the taint of corruption again. The government will have to walk the straight and narrow path.

Raje has made the right moves so far. Unlike Shivraj and Raman Singh, who are sometimes seen as Modi’s contemporaries, Raje has positioned herself as a Modi follower.

She has praised him profusely, given him credit for the win in Rajasthan and maintained a safe distance from her erstwhile mentors who are seen to be in the anti-Modi camp. Though her supporters claim someday she could be a contender for the PM’s job, Raje has refused to look beyond Rajasthan.

Raje’s equation with Modi is unlikely to change till the 2014 elections. The real test will begin only after that.