Modi effect: Bhopal rally dwarfs Shivraj; opens fissures in party

By Chandrakant Naidu Bhopal: Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s worst fears seem to have come true after the BJP’s recent Bhopal jamboree. Narendra Modi, the mountebank, dwarfed Chouhan at the rally called essentially to boost the BJP’s prospects in the upcoming assembly elections. The large rally also opened up the seams the party was trying to keep under wraps. Like the patriarch, LK Advani, Chouhan also wanted the announcement on Modi’s prime ministerial candidacy deferred till the assembly elections as the Modi gambit could put off the Muslim voters in nearly 80 state constituencies. [caption id=“attachment_1145471” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Shivraj Singh Chouhan. AFP[/caption] Like an aggrieved prima donna, Modi came prepared to teach Chouhan and his mentors a lesson for projecting the Madhya Pradesh chief minister as his potential rival. Hordes of party workers from Gujarat occupying several rows in the front booed other speakers while rooting for Modi. All speakers, including Modi, showered Chouhan with platitudes, yet no one in the crowd was left in any doubt about Modi’s objective. Chouhan was sailing smoothly till just a couple of weeks ago with highest popularity rating in the state. Modi has now left him worrying about the gravity of the task ahead. Most surveys had shown him leading the party to a third term. Now the opposition within the party is rising. And those who spoke for him in Delhi have lost their clout. Advani cast his weight behind an anti-charismatic Chouhan for obvious reasons, as did Sushma Swaraj, who is also an MP from Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh. Chouhan was expecting Swaraj to head the campaign committee after Modi’s ‘elevation’. Party president Rajnath Singh has decided to assume that charge. While starting his ‘yatra’ a month ago Chouhan didn’t account for the magnitude of Modi factor. Modi was kept out of Chouhan’s campaign posters. Chouhan’s adversaries in the state have buried the hatchet but haven’t forgotten to mark the spot. While addressing the rally former chief minister Uma Bharti brought into open the grudge she nurses over being humiliated by state leaders. The former state party president Prabhat Jha also has scores to settle. The RSS joint secretary, Suresh Soni, had backed Jha against Chouhan whose intrigues got rid of Jha and reinstalled Narendra Singh Tomar. However, Jha’s return as national vice-president has set the chief minister back. The state leadership would now be tested in selecting the candidates. Chouhan and Tomar have sought a free hand for the job promising to return 150 candidates. They have also managed to keep Soni out of selection process. It would, however, be hard for the central leadership would grant that wish for fear of antagonising others. The formation of state election committee has run into trouble with faction leaders pressing their claims. Uma Bharti, now a legislator in the Uttar Pradesh assembly, might be kept out of the committee on technical grounds. It suits her as she would not be answerable for the party’s showing while her supporters in Bundelkhand could embarrass Chouhan. Jha would have a say in the nominations much against the wishes of the Chouhan-Tomar duo. Chouhan doesn’t individually need to bear the brunt of incumbency fatigue but many of his ministers might have to be axed. At least six of them are unlikely to return, say the party sources. The present legislature party has 28 members with criminal cases pending against them. In the changed circumstances their winnability is no guarantee for re-nomination. This compounds the party’s problems. After the show of strength the party faces a stiffer reality check on performance front. Chouhan has been walking tall on statistical stilts. Several populist announcements have remained on paper. He can’t wish away the ugly reality of mounting corruption, menacing crime graph and unprecedented atrocities on women and children. According to Home Minister Umashankar Gupta’s own admission in the assembly, 29,828 minor girls have gone missing and 7,306 have been raped over the past five years. This works out to 16 girls disappearing and four being violated every day. The state had recorded 2,660 rapes in just 10 months. Of these 255 were gang- rapes and 26 of the victims had committed suicide and 20 were murdered. A regrouped Congress party under young Jyotiraditya Scindia is exploiting these failures effectively.