Last lap before Delhi Assembly Poll: AAP on the obstacles ahead

“When I joined the party my prediction was 2 seats and around 10-12 percent of the vote share. I said we should go ahead with a 20-year plan,” says Aam Aadmi Party leader Yogendra Yadav. “First election you only contest, the second election you cut heavyweight votes and then you win in the third election.” Yadav, who claims that he has always been a conservative as a psephologist, is staying cautious despite a flurry of recent polls predicting up to 25 seats for the newly formed party in the Delhi Assembly elections. Yadav says the predictions left him wondering, though he added that these polls did reflect the ground reality. But polls aside, there are plenty of other challenges and obstacles to contend with before election day, as the recent sting on the party by Media Sarkar revealed. There have also been two recent incidents where the party has lodged a police complaint claiming that people posing as AAP volunteers have been distributing cash among electorates. The party, however has given a clean chit to its candidates and filed a defamation suit against news portal Media Sarkar and another news channel. [caption id=“attachment_125093” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AAP leaders at the release of their manifesto. PTI[/caption] After criticising journalists for not cross-checking the material in the  video footage, Yadav admits, “True, we don’t have the workforce and funding to check on conspiracies before the election. And that’s why every day there is news of on-the-ground activity to damage our image.” For a party built on idealism, these kinds of incidents pose an even greater threat. And the latest string of allegations relating to corruption has left party volunteers and workers baffled and doubtful. “That’s the first thing we have to mend. The raw footage which proves our candidates were innocent will be a great morale booster, though,” says Yadav. Other than media scandals, the party also faces a significant numerical disadvantage on the ground, say veteran observers. “In the last hour before the election it’s most important to have a strong network of grassroot workers and leaders. Because this is the segment that makes sure the votes swing in favour of a particular party,” says a senior journalist who has been covering Delhi politics for a long time now. “Both BJP and Congress and any other big regional party have this resource, where there are men who dedicatedly sit and keep complaining to the police against the misconduct of the other parties. It’s a hit and miss situation. But one time out of 10 it definitely works.” Among the other factors that make AAP the underdog in the election is the Muslim vote, which is still loyal to the Congress. “There is general hostility towards Congress this year, yet a certain section of the Muslims will go for Congress. But at the same time, it also depends on the candidate on the ground,” says Ashok Malik, a journalist and political analyst. A more optimistic Yadav points out, “No doubt a sizeable number of Muslim votes lies with the Congress but the disgruntled section is sliding towards us.” They now have a real alternative to vote for, he says, as opposed to opting for the BJP or BSP. The journey to swing the Muslim votes in its favor hasn’t been an easy one for AAP. “After Anna Hazare’s movement it was very important for the party to come out of the shadows of the Jan Lokpal movement. It was a Hindu majority movement because of Anna. After forming the party it was a major work for Arvind to reach out to Muslims,” says Yadav. “He distributed a public letter among the Muslim voters in Delhi and that letter is the reason that we got the Election Commission notice for addressing communal and religious issues.” He says the party will cite the Sachar committee report clearly depicting the condition of Muslims in India. One big break for the party is the minimal presence of the BSP. The party which came third in the last Assembly election with a majority of Muslim and Dalit votes is nowhere to be found this year. Having lost power in UP, Delhi now means little to the party. The virtual absence of the BSP may funnel a number of caste-based votes toward AAP, says Yadav, who notes, “The Valmikis have been with us but we are yet to build a sustainable presence in the Jatav community.” A large number of Dalit votes will swing towards the Congress, say experts, because a major population of this class lives in the resettlement and unauthorised colonies that have been targeted by Sheila Dikshit. In the year 2012, the Delhi government regularised 850 unauthorised cluster of slums. “In the coming year we will make sure that Delhi is free of slums and JJ colonies,” Dikshit repeatedly claims in her interviews. Gaining traction among Dalits and Muslims may not, however, be enough. Due to the Narendra Modi factor and the popularity of his pro-development agenda, the upper class votes are Delhi are sliding towards the BJP. Perhaps this is why – contrary to opinion polls which predict a shimmering scorecard for the Aam Aadmi party – the bookies have predicted high odds against an AAP victory. “The bookies have priced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the lowest at 2.25 paise and the Congress, despite the anti-incumbency factor, at 2.40 paise as a close second. The AAP at 3.40 paise is the least likely to win in Delhi and therefore the “most risky” to bet on,” a leading bookie told IANS on condition of anonymity. It’s also why Yogendra Yadav, who has a career spanning over two decades as a psephologist, sounds cautious yet resolute when he  declares, “We are here to stay as a political party and change the way politics is done in the next 20 years.”