Lalu’s 'coalition of the discredited' could challenge BJP, Nitish in Bihar

Lalu Prasad Yadav had only just stepped out of the gates of Ranchi’s Birsa Munda jail when he took aim at Narendra Modi and the BJP. The RJD supremo, granted bail by the Supreme Court pending his appeal against a lower court order convicting him in the Fodder Scam case, promised to “unite all secular parties…to strengthen secular forces…(so that) Narendra Modi, RSS and BJP would not be able to fulfil their dreams.” His target though was not Narendra Modi. It was Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The JD(U) chief, Lalu’s one time colleague turned arch rival, has been claiming the secular mantle in Bihar since he broke his 17 year long alliance with the BJP over the Prime Ministerial candidature of Narendra Modi. [caption id=“attachment_1289855” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Lalu Prasad Yadav. PTI[/caption] In Bihar’s fractured polity, secularism is a catch phrase to win the votes of the minority Muslim population, which at around 17 percent of the state’s population is a significant vote bank. Without the Muslim vote to add to his Yadav base, Lalu is a marginal player in Bihar. Having broken away from the BJP (and its upper caste and urban pockets vote), Nitish too might end up a marginal player should he fail to garner a big majority of the Muslim vote. Only one of Lalu or Nitish will end up a serious contender to a Modi-led BJP in the next Lok Sabha election. The sight of Lalu, the original anti-BJP crusader who had arrested LK Advani in 1990, walking out of jail (with the sympathy factor tailing him) would have displeased no one more than Nitish Kumar. Lalu’s release is obviously good news for his RJD which was routed in 2009 and would have found the going difficult in 2014 without its charismatic leader. It is also good news for the Congress, which now has two potential allies in a crucial state — RJD and JD(U). In the circumstances, it can hope to strike a good bargain. The Congress’s core vote, around 10 percent of the total (which could rise in the event of a religiously polarised campaign) could be an important addition for both Lalu and Nitish. Of course, there are perils of allying with Congress. The UPA is a widely discredited Government held responsible for rampant inflation and corruption. Nitish Kumar, who prides himself on a good governance record in Bihar, would lose considerable sheen should he form an opportunistic alliance with the Congress. Lalu, on the other hand, would have no such compulsions. Like UPA 2, Lalu is only remembered for bad governance and corruption during his party’s fifteen-year-reign in Bihar between 1990 and 2005. Still, a RJD-Congress-LJP (Paswan’s outfit) ‘coalition of the discredited’ could form a potent force by getting its caste and religious arithmetic right. It would give the BJP a run for its money and would almost certainly hand Nitish an adverse outcome. The threat of losing the entire Muslim vote to a RJD-Congress alliance may yet force Nitish to woo the Congress. That would be good news for BJP as the Muslim vote may get split between Lalu and a JD(U)-Congress alliance. It would also destroy Nitish’s reputation as an able and honest administrator. Whatever the outcome, Bihar is heading into its most interesting and uncertain election in decades. After two reasonably successful term sin Government, Nitish Kumar ought to have been in pole position. But the Modi factor and the Lalu wildcard have left him in an uneasy spot. The Congress, which by itself would not be a player in Bihar, may find itself in the rather attractive position of being wooed by two regional satraps. Add to this combustible mix the fact that Narendra Modi’s Prime Ministerial hopes may well depend on the Bihar outcome. The stakes are high. Expect some serious manipulative politics ahead.