Arvind Kejriwal to contest polls from Sheila Dikshit's constituency, New Delhi

It was billed as the next big announcement by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) after Arvind Kejriwal declared that they’ll contest the Delhi Assembly elections in 2013. And big it is. The party has declared that Kejriwal will file his nomination from the same New Delhi constituency chief minister Sheila Dikshit contests from. The decision was taken after consulting and seeking referendums from at least 1000 AAP volunteers in the national capital on Sunday. Kejriwal added that if Dikshit changes her mind about her constituency, Kejriwal will file his nomination from the whichever constituency she fights from. AAP’s screening committee is supposed to interview Kejriwal along with several other applicants to contest for the seat, following which they will come out with a list of shortlisted candidates. However, in effect, it is unlikely that the party will choose anyone else over Kejriwal, therefore, making the AAP chief their chief ministerial candidate too. [caption id=“attachment_834331” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Arvind Kejriwal. Reuters.[/caption] “People no more see the BJP as a party which can defeat Congress. They realise that BJP deliberately fields weak candidates against the chief minister. This time, there are is a fight among its leaders on who will be their chief ministerial candidate,” said Kejriwal. Analysts say that while chances of Kejriwal defeating Dikshit are dim, it will be unfair to call it a foolish decision on the part of AAP. Formed after delimitation of assembly seats, the New Delhi constituency is considered a Congress bastion. In 2008, Dikshit defeated BJP leader Vijay Jolly with a margin of over 14,000 plus votes to retain power for the third consecutive term. A substantial chunk of voters in this seat comprises government servants. Pay commissions and inflation are poll issues here rather than bad roads, power- cuts, lack of water — issues which matter in other constituencies. “Voters in this seat have no solid grievance against Sheila Dikhit based on which they would want to replace her with another political leader. The only factor going against her is anti- incumbency. People are not angry with her. They are tired of her. Whether Kejriwal will win or not, depends on how well he can use it in his favour,” said Manisha Priyam, political analyst and fellow at Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, Delhi. After repeatedly exposing the Sheila Dikshit government for lack of basic amenities such as water and electricity in the city, Kejriwal has taken it to the next step by pitching himself against the chief minister in elections. From AAP versus Congress, now it will be Kejriwal versus Dikshit. Jai Mrug, Mumbai based psephologist said that this is AAP’s way of making the entire election a fight between their protagonist and whom they perceive them to be the villain. “With this, they make the contest across the state presidential and get floating votes across most seats. Arvind may lose but will help a lot more of his marginal wins,” he said. Abhay Kumar Dubey, political scientist and faculty member at the Delhi-based Centre for Study of Developing Societies is of the opinion that more than a particular candidate, it is AAP’s image as a single entity that will count at the day of election. “Winning a certain number of seats is very important for AAP’s political future in Delhi. Since the chances of Kejriwal winning from the New Delhi seat are slim, he should not consume himself in a symbolic fight. He must understand that if people want to back AAP as a whole, then any competent candidate will be able to hold his/her own against Dikshit. And if no one wants to back AAP even Kejriwal will lose miserably. I think Kejriwal should have contested from an area where he has worked in the most.” AAP has already announced its first shortlist of nominees for twelve assembly seats. While Kejriwal’s close aide and AAP leader Manish Sisodia is an aspirant from Patparganj seat, the face of the party’s women’s wing Shazia Ilmi is one of the short-listed nominees from South Delhi’s Greater Kailash seat. Congress’s Delhi unit, meanwhile, dismissed Sunday’s event as a non- development. “It is unfair to compare Arvind Kejriwal with Sheila Dikshit. He doesn’t stand a chance in New Delhi seat. Overall, AAP cannot win even a single seat in the upcoming polls. Yes, people are talking about AAP. But this discussion about their strategy and activities is no indicator of their chances of winning,” said Jitender Kochar, spokesperson, Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee.