Kejriwal, AAP stand to gain the most no matter how Delhi votes on 7 February

The 7 February Delhi assembly elections will be a turning point for both Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal. The latest India Today-Cicero opinion poll shows the BJP marginally ahead with 40 percent of the popular vote and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) just four points behind with 36 percent. The Congress is a distant third with 16 percent. It’s clearly becoming a two-horse race, and this means regardless of whether he gets to be CM or not, Kejriwal does not really lose. The problem for the BJP is that the shrinking of the Congress is not good news. A relatively strong showing by the Congress would have meant a three-way split in the vote, where the Modi factor would have provided the tilting edge. This is what happened in December 2013, when the BJP got 31 seats, AAP 28 and the Congress eight (others three). [caption id=“attachment_2043375” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] This time, the Congress is sliding faster than you can say “Arvind Kejriwal”, and any further collapse can only benefit him. If the Congress is going to be seen as a loser by the electorate, the chances are a lot of its remaining vote will shift to AAP. We could have a cliff-hanger, or even an AAP win. The problem for AAP is different. If, in the run-up to the last Delhi assembly election, and even the Lok Sabha polls, it had the distinct aura of freshness, with the party being driven as much by voter enthusiasm and idealism as a political agenda, this time it is down to a personality cult. Kejriwal’s personal appeal to a lot of voters seems stronger than that of his party. AAP is thus fighting this election in a presidential manner, not on its previous principles. Broadly speaking, before 16 May, the Idea of Modi was bigger than the Idea of BJP, and the Idea of AAP was larger than the Idea of Kejriwal. Right now, it is the reverse situation that both parties are trying to battle. The BJP should worry that the Idea of BJP - as a narrow, sectarian party, reinforced by the utterings of assorted Sadhvis, Yogis and Maharajs - is overtaking the Idea of Modi, which has so far stood for “sabka saath, sabka vikas”, development and governance. AAP should worry that this election is about Kejriwal’s political future and reputation, and not for the ideals it originally stood for and which made its viral growth possible in the first half of 2014. The Idea of AAP is greater than the Idea of Kejriwal as its only possible boss, and if Kejriwal wins, the Idea of AAP will stand diminished. On the other side, the mere fact that the BJP is waiting for Modi to rescue it is a sad reflection on the Delhi party leadership - which seems to have reduced itself to a bunch of time-servers that is afraid to face the electorate. Modi and Amit Shah made a monumental blunder in May-June 2014 when they decided to listen to the breast-beating by Delhi BJP MLAs who were unwilling to fight another election just seven months after nearly winning one. The chances are the BJP would have swept to power had the elections been held in June or July last year, when the Modi wave was a tsunami. The second error the Modi-Shah duo made was to sideline Harsh Vardhan, who, despite his relative lack of charisma, was just beginning to look like a potential CM, with a clean enough image to take on Kejriwal. It might still be a good idea for the party to parachute him back to lead the Delhi fight. With no other worthwhile leader in sight, and with the rest of the party making no waves in the interim, his sincerity and Modi’s charisma might just do it. As for AAP, my own personal assessment is that its chances are at least 50:50 to get a majority on its own, assuming the Congress fails to make a fight of it. Two reasons why: Kejriwal has made amends for his “bhagoda” image by apologising for his mistake of abandoning office in February 2014 after only 49 days in power. The Delhi electorate has no reason not to forgive him, for politicians who admit to having made mistakes are seldom treated harshly. Second, the BJP has been sitting on its butt waiting for Modi to rescue it from ignominy. If, for the last six months Kejriwal has been busy reinventing and reinvigorating his party at the roots, the Delhi BJP has been doing little to counter him on the ground. For this alone, the BJP deserves to lose. A party that expects to win not on its own merit and effort but by hanging on to the coat-tails of someone else should be ashamed of winning even if the electorate decides - willy-nilly - in its favour. Whatever the final result, one thing is clear: the BJP will continue to remain the party of the right with a Hindu tinge, and hence will have some salience with voters even if it loses. But between the Congress and AAP, it will be an either/or situation. AAP’s growth can only come at Congress’ cost. The “secular-left” mantle in Delhi may be about to shift to AAP. And this will be clear on 10 February even if the BJP squeaks through to government. AAP will gain either way: it will either form the government (with or without Congress) or occupy the entire opposition space. If it’s the former, it will find new enthusiasm for the party in the states. If it is the latter, it will be a thorn in the BJP’s side in Delhi. When it comes to protests, there is no one to beat Kejriwal.Heads he wins, tails he won’t lose.