Karnataka polls: Why it's too soon to write off Yeddyurappa

“Will B S Yeddyurappa be the Keshubhai Patel or Kalyan Singh of Karnataka?” My intention to provoke Dhananjay Kumar, senior leader and spokesperson of the Karnataka Janatha Paksha (KJP) had the desired effect. Kumar frowned and waving his index finger, asked me not to make the mistake of writing off Yeddyurappa. But Kumar’s public show of bravado apart, everyone in the KJP knows that Elections 2013 are about Yeddyurappa trying to be the kingmaker, not the king. The former chief minister’s best bet is a fractured mandate where he with his MLAs gets to play a role. Given his standing as a powerful Lingayat politician (the community accounts for 17 percent of the population), he is certain to dent the BJP chances significantly. The advantage will accrue mainly to the Congress and the JD(S) to an extent but Yeddyurappa would hope it still isn’t good enough for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 112. And that’s where Yeddyurappa hopes to do business with the Congress. “Will you support the Congress from the outside if such a situation arises,” I ask Dhananjay Kumar. “Why outside? Should such a situation arise, we will join the government. The Congress is not an untouchable for us,” he replies. KJP leaders are emphatic Yeddyurappa will finish off the BJP. Election Karnataka is a revenge battle for him and once done, they believe it will be ‘Advantage Yeddyurappa’. [caption id=“attachment_698325” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Former Karnataka CM and KJP President B S Yeddyurappa releasing the party’s manifesto for upcoming assembly elections in Bengaluru. PTI[/caption] But at the moment, Yeddyurappa’s big problem is getting winnable candidates and an image problem. The KJP is seen as the B team of the BJP particularly since most of his candidates are those with a saffron tinge. In fact, Yeddyurappa is annoyed that many of his ‘supporters’ in the BJP who he thought would cross over just before elections have decided to turn a Brutus. Ministers like V Somanna, Murugesh Nirani, Umesh Katti and Basavaraj Bommai have stayed put in the parent party. The decision of these BJP-ites not to join Yeddyurappa is an indication of which way the wind is blowing. While their chances are undoubtedly not so bright in the BJP this election, they obviously do not see a move to the KJP as changing their political horoscope. Clearly, the feeling is that sticking on with the BJP gives them more political opportunity in the long run. But it would be unwise to write off Yeddyurappa. Despite his exit from the chief minister’s office in rather unsavoury circumstances, there are many in Karnataka who respect him for his vision and development agenda and compliment him for his first 18 months in office. Being a full-time politician, Yeddyurappa is seen as someone who had the determination to make a difference. If Yeddyurappa failed, a large part of the blame should also be laid at the door of the BJP leadership — both in Bangalore and Delhi. Falling short of a majority in 2008 meant he had to be at the mercy of the Bellary brothers to finance ‘Operation Kamal’ to woo non-BJP MLAs. Given the mining mafia’s hold over the political establishment, Yeddyurappa could not tame the brothers. Efforts to do so came to nought, and his rivals within the party spread the word that he could not take his team along and that he lacked leadership skills. The constant interference by Bangalore MP Ananth Kumar also was an irritant, with whom Yeddyurappa shares a hate-hate relationship. Even Congress leaders concede that what led to Yeddyurappa’s downfall was his inclination to carve his own identity to match up to an Ananth Kumar, instead of being comfortable in his own standing as the tallest BJP leader in Karnataka. His inability to communicate effectively in English or Hindi meant Yeddyurappa was this regional satrap who could not quite pull the right strings in the Delhi durbar to blunt Ananth Kumar’s connections. And then his love for the land of Karnataka and his family did him in as he was caught in a web of allegedly shady land deals. It is this image of a corrupt politician that Yeddyurappa finds difficult to shake off though he remains a force to reckon with within his Lingayat community. Where does Yeddyurappa go if the Congress gets a clear majority and does not need a helping hand? Dhananjay Kumar rules out a homecoming saying BJP is a lost cause in Karnataka. To dismiss the BJP in Karnataka may be wishful thinking since the sense one gets from the ground is that the same voters could actually vote very differently in the Lok Sabha elections next year. Even the Congress realises this which is why most leaders are already talking of how important it will be to provide an extremely efficient and clean government in the first eleven months to impress the voters. That is if they come to power. Interestingly BJP leaders do not rule out a ‘come back home, all is forgiven’ for Yeddyurappa if both sides realise that only a BJP that stays together, wins together. Efforts to patch up could take place after the elections if the voters leave both parties badly bruised. But for now, Yeddyurappa is stressing on the importance of regional parties in the states. He fancies himself as an important player not just in 2013 but even in a fractured mandate scenario in Delhi next year. The last thing on Yeddyurappa’s mind is a walk into the sunset.