Jaya's AIADMK could just decide the next PM of India: Survey

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa may not be entirely happy with the 29 Lok Sabha seats forecast by the India TV-Times Now-C Voter survey, because she has made it clear time and again that what she wants is a clear sweep of all the 39 seats in the state. However, the projection is no less than a sweep. Not only is it the highest tally that the AIADMK would have ever won, but it will also make sure that the rival DMK will have no more than five seats, which is less than what the AIADMK has now. The Congress, which at present has eight seats, will be dead meat with just one seat. [caption id=“attachment_1177299” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. PTI[/caption] Earlier in July, the CNN-IBN survey also forecast a verdict favourable to Jaya if elections were to be conducted immediately. The numbers the survey put out were much lower: 16-20. The DMK was projected to win 8-12, the Congress 1-2, and the others 2-14. In comparison, this is certainly great news for the AIADMK because the survey has been done closer to the elections. The tally forecast by the new survey is the highest for Jayalalithaa so far. The closest she could reach in the past was in 1998, when it garnered 18 seats as an NDA ally. And if one compares it with the washout in 2004, when the party failed to win a single seat, this is a remarkable rise.  At the moment, the AIADMK has nine seats as against DMK’s 18; Congress has eight; and others have four. If the forecast comes true, the DMK will be in deep trouble. The other interesting aspect of the India-TV survey is the rise of actor turned politician Vijayakanth’s party - DMDK. The survey says it will get two seats. Although a party of very recent origin, DMDK is the most significant alliance partner in Tamil Nadu for both the Dravidian parties. It has about 8-10 percent vote-share and can tilt the results decisively in certain constituencies. Both the DMK and the Congress are actively wooing the DMDK, which had bitterly parted with the AIADMK after a stunning victory in the 2011 Assembly elections. Reportedly, even the BJP is trying to court Vijayakanth.  DMDK will also be the only local party from the state that will be represented in the Lok Sabha other than the VCK, and the MDMK, both of whom have one member each at present. For the DMK, plummeting to anywhere near the projected figure of five from the present 18 will be a disaster. While being out of power in the state, where it doesn’t have enough numbers to be even called the opposition, losing grip at the centre can be a major practical challenge for its leaders. Contraction of the number of seats from the present eight to one will raise also organisational challenges for the Congress. The survey predicts that the coming elections will throw up a situation similar to that in 1996. If it turns out to be true, the AIADMK can be thrilled because with 29 seats, it can truly be a king maker. In 1996, the party had absolutely no role because it didn’t have a single member. Neither did it have any presence in the assembly as it had lost all but four of the seats contested. Jayalalithaa has repeatedly promised her party workers that the AIADMK will decide the next prime minister of India. Looks like she is certainly inching towards that.