In UP, SP has lost credence and Modi has struck the right chord

The Election Commission has announced poll dates and one of the states that holds key to Delhi is Uttar Pradesh. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP needs to do really well in this state if it wants to come to power. The CNN-IBN-Lokniti opinion poll survey reveals that while the BJP does indeed stand on firm ground, the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party government is treading on a slippery slope with strong anti-incumbency. [caption id=“attachment_1421027” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi. PTI[/caption] Under the Akhilesh government, 57% respondents said crime had increased, 49% said caste based violence had increased, and overall only 49% are satisfied with the incumbent government. Even the UPA seems to have lost popularity with 53% saying that it should not come to power in Uttar Pradesh. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti said during a debate, “There is a huge disappointment with the state government. Our past polls have shown when only half the people say they are satisfied with the government it is not good news. The data, however, shows that the BJP is where it was in the last round of the survey.” While it has been believed that caste equations influence politics in UP, sociologist Deepankar Gupta said that was not true. “Caste has never really mattered. The reason is simple. In any parliamentary constituency there are at least five major castes, but there are usually two candidates, sometimes also from the same caste, and the people are forced to vote out of their caste. People are not voting on caste grounds,” he said. Ramachandra Guha was of the opinion that while there may have been caste influence votes earlier, things are not the same any more. “Things are changing. In Bihar Lalu can’t count on the Yadav vote like he could. But I would not rule out caste as a significant point,” he said. CNN-IBN’s National Affairs Editor Bhupendra Choubey meanwhile said, “There no doubting the fact that Modi has a huge advantage over others when it comes to first time voters. But, look at statements by Modi, he said the coming years are for Dalits and backward communities. Is it not BJP trying to merge its caste credential with its appeal?” In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections the BSP got 28% of the vote share, SP 23% and the Congress and the BJP had 18%. The opinion polls reveal that if elections were held now in Uttar Pradesh it would be a significantly different picture with the BSP getting 17% of the vote share, SP would get 22%, Congress a mere 13% and BJP a whopping 36% and AAP would get 5%. What has changed in the last five years in UP that has made the BJP such a popular choice? Shastri said, “The upper caste consolidation has happened and even significant chunk of lower caste votes also have moved to the BJP. The Jatav vote moved from the BSP to the BJP.” Swapan Dasgupta was of the opinion that may it was the lack of leadership in the state that has created support for Modi. “There are two reasons, one, Modi has made a difference significantly. His appeal has attracted people and two the BJP has managed to recreate the social coalition that explained Kalyan Singh’s success in the 90s.” Manini Chatterjee said that the BJP was trying to create a wave of support for itself. “There are normal elections there is the abnormal lahar waali rajneeti. UP is one state the BJP had gotten upto 54 seats. They are trying to create a lahar,” she said. Ramachandra Guha, meanwhile, blamed it on the Muzaffarnagar riots. “In UP there is no leader who commands respect. Muzaffarnagar may have played into this. Not just because of the riots but relief and rehabilitation. Even with the bad standards of India the Akhilesh government outperformed the bad governance.” Pointing out that neither Mayawati nor Akhilesh could provide good governance, Choubey said, “Mayawati came to power with majority in 2008. Everyone thought things will change and her regimes were one of the most corrupt. Akhilesh came with a even bigger majority. Akhilesh is in the chair but doesn’t seem to be in power. Who is in power no one knows. Take a look at the speeches by BJP and SP leaders. SP is trying to live in lalaland. There is a problem of water and electricity and the SP govt has no answers.” Meanwhile Deepankar Gupta said, “Modi’s rise to power is because people see him as a person who will deliver. Modi has that extra zest. Whenever it comes to national elections, national leaders get more importance and local leaders lose relevance.” The survey revealed that 34% people want Modi as the PM candidate, but only 46% want Modi to contest from UP. While Modi has had great traction in the state, there are a few road blocks. Bhupendra Choubey said, “He may well contest from UP. Over the last 48 hours all famous ghats in Varanasi have posters of Murli Manohar wishing people Happy Holi. I don’t think Modi will want to start another battle front with the old guard.” Manini Chatterjee agreed and said, “Joshi is not at all on board with Modi contesting there. You don’t want a disgruntled Joshi. India is not a presidential system. Voters will press the button on the local MLAs name and not against Modi.” However Ramachandra Guha pointed out, “If the RSS passes a decree demading that the old guard retire then things might clear up.”