If UP obliges, Cong could opt for a mid-term poll in 2012

Is the Congress party getting ready for an early general election in 2012? No one but the first family knows the answer to this question, but there are tell-tale signs pointing in that direction. The real signal will, of course, come after the Uttar Pradesh elections. If the Congress fares significantly better than before and Mayawati’s hold is dented, there is good reason to expedite the elections to get Rahul baba a mandate. Having got just 20 seats the last time in UP, it will take a monumental disaster for the Congress to get less than that this time. The signals are coming already. • The Election Commission has fast-forwarded the UP election. Though there was no earthly need to bring it before the budget session – the UP assembly’s term expires only on 20 May – this haste indicates the political pressures at work. Of course, Goa, Punjab and Manipur elections are due earlier, but these could always have been separated from UP and Goa. [caption id=“attachment_166388” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Is the Congress party getting ready for an early general election in 2012? PTI”]  [/caption] • The government has shown a tearing hurry to bring forward two election-related decisions – the 4.5 percent quota for Muslims within the 27 percent OBC quota, and the poorly conceived Food Security Bill. Both are potential vote-winners for the Congress. • Sonia Gandhi’s sudden strong backing for the government’s version of the Lokpal Bill, despite the possibility that it may not pass muster in the Rajya Sabha, is another straw in the wind. The idea is to get the taint of inaction on corruption out of the way quickly. If the Opposition messes up the bill, the Congress can blame them for its failure. If it passes, Congress will claim victory. • The presidential elections in July will offer Congress the opportunity to kick Manmohan Singh upstairs, killing two birds with one stone:  a dignified way out for Singh, and for installing a friendly power at Rashtrapati Bhawan if the next election throws up a fractured verdict. • Last month, when Pranab Mukherjee decided to put the retail FDI plan on hold, he gave the possibility of a mid-term poll as the reason for not precipitating things. Could that have been a Freudian slip? Moreover, there are other unstated reasons for keeping the option for an early election open. • Sonia Gandhi’s health is an important matter of speculation. Her anti-cancer operation at Sloan Kettering may have gone well, but no one knows if she has to go there for another check-up or follow-up. If her health will not hold up till 2014, an early election is vital. • The 2G scam trial is on, and decisions will start coming in in 2012 and early 2013. The decisions could implicate or bring censure to the PM and former Finance Minister and current Home Minister P Chidambaram. This means corruption will become a key election issue the longer elections are postponed. • Most importantly, 2012 will be a very difficult year for the economy. The fiscal deficit has gone for a toss, growth is slowing down, the energy sector is in a mess, corporate profits have been hit, the rupee is crash-landing. If the Food Security Bill costs start kicking in, the centre’s finance will be truly under water. • On the plus side, formal inflation is coming down due to the economic slowdown. If Europe continues to teeter on the brink of a collapse, the global slowdown will bring commodity prices down further. Electorally, the government can claim victory against inflation and then use the Food Security Bill to claim that everyone except the Congress is against the poor. It makes for a viable electoral strategy. • Among Congress allies, only the DMK has something to fear in the next general election. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool may, on the other hand, welcome one since it will allow her to send more MPs to the Lok Sabha. DMK’s losses may be made up by the Trinamool- Congress combine. • The Congress is delaying Telangana for the same reason. If the state is ultimately going to be created, it makes no sense to announce it so far ahead of the elections. By saving that up for the last, the Congress will be hoping to make electoral gains from the announcement. • On the assumption that the Congress does reasonably well in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab, it will get significant political momentum and the chance to attribute it all to Rahul baba. However, with the Gujarat elections looming towards the end of 2012 – which the Congress is unlikely to win – it could lose momentum if elections are delayed. Especially, if the Gujarat elections throws up Narendra Modi as a viable BJP candidate for the Congress by 2013 or 2014. Modi is in many ways the Congress’ worst nightmare opponent for two reasons: One, after the governance shambles of the last two years in UPA-2, Modi can easily claim a great advantage here. He can claim to be a strong leader when the country is looking for one. Two, even though there is a possibility of Modi polarising votes in many states, drumming this communal angle too much may prompt a reverse polarisation – as has happened repeatedly in Gujarat. Of course, Gujarat is not India. But who can predict what India will think after one or two more economic nightmare years?