How a Gujarat heat wave could hit Modi's hopes of record margin

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s aspirations for a “historical” win for Narendra Modi in Vadodara are being hampered by that mightiest of foes, the Gujarat summer. The Gujarat unit of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has sent out an alert for a heat wave in parts of the state that will continue through the week including on polling day. Maximum daytime temperatures, already hitting 42 degrees and 43 degrees Celsius in several cities, will rise beyond 44 degrees, it is predicted. The BJP in Gujarat is aiming for a record margin of victory for Modi in Vadodara , more than 7 lakh votes according to some. That is way more than the largest ever margin of victory in an Indian election, which was posted by the CPM’s Anil Basu who won in West Bengal in 2004 with a margin of over 5,92,000 votes. [caption id=“attachment_1502009” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational Image. AFP.[/caption] A record margin is tied in closely with a record turnout of voters, and the BJP has been watching keenly as NGOs, local businesses and residents’ groups got on the bandwagon through the last week, “promoting voter awareness” and imploring Vadodara’s residents to go cast their vote on Thursday. Of course, the desired record margin is also part of a mega strategy for a proposed larger than life victory for the BJP, a mission to win all 26 seats (or at least improve the BJP’s best ever 21 out of 26 seats) in the state. “The heat is going to be a challenge,” says Bharat Dangar, city unit president of the BJP in Vadodara. The BJP had a vehicle rally on Monday, the final day of campaigning, and Dangar was elated to see 15,000 people show up on motorbikes, three-wheelers, cars, SUVs and trucks. “They came despite the terrible heat. It was so hot that we couldn’t touch the car, it was scalding hot,” Dangar says. A major traffic jam ensued around 10 am on Monday. But getting BJP workers and members to a rally is one thing, getting average citizens – even if they believe that a Gujarati must become prime minister – out to the polling stations amid heat wave conditions is another matter altogether, Dangar admits. The local BJP office has put an army of nearly 30,000 kaaryakartas on the job. Apart from the 9,820 BJP members of Vadodara BJP, those who have paid a Rs 200-membership fee, the party has roped in about 25,000 “page pramukhs” or “page chiefs”, workers who are each assigned a single page on the electoral roll of the city, totalling about 40 to 50 names each. Each worker is responsible for getting in touch with those 14 to 15 families and bringing them out to cast their vote, Dangar said. But the IMD warning is a hurdle: “Heat wave conditions would prevail in most parts of the Gujarat State and in Diu , Daman , Dadra Nagar Haveli during the next two days,” says the statement issued by IMD Gujarat chief Jayanta Sarkar. On Tuesday, Vadodara saw a high of 43 degrees, the same is expected on polling day_._  Gandhinagar was 41 degrees at the hottest on Tuesday, expected to be 42 degrees tomorrow.  Ahmedabad is expected to hit a maximum of 42 degrees on polling day. Bhuj, Rajkot, Surendranagar, Idar,  Anand are all set to see temperatures hovering around 42 or 43 degrees or more on polling day. According to the IMD, places such as Deesa will see highest temperatures hit 44 degrees this week, including on polling day.  Bhuj too will see 44 degrees at the hottest, according to IMD forecasts. Election officials responded by altering polling timings a bit, starting at 7 am instead of 8 am and ending at 6 pm instead of 5 pm.