Hardik Patel and the Patidar agitation: Why the Sangh Parivar will be cheering

From the time youth leader Hardik Patel amassed an estimated six lakh people to press for the inclusion of the Patels in the OBC pool of reservation, every political pundit has been trying to identify the mastermind or brain behind the sudden, and unexpected, emergence of this movement. Nobody denies the depth of anger among the Patels against the policy of affirmative action. Nor does anyone rule out the enviable financial clout of the Patels and their numerical strength, said to comprise 18  per cent of Gujarat’s population, as factors behind their massive mobilisation witnessed last week. Nevertheless, pundits unanimously believe no movement can acquire such a sweep, and depth, simply on the basis of anger, financial resources, and numerical strength. It must have had access to organizational skills, honed over years of experience in crafting popular protests, beyond the capacity of a 22-year-old, as Hardik is, so they say. [caption id=“attachment_2414942” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Hardik Patel in Delhi. Naresh Sharma/ Firstpost[/caption] Eyebrows have also been raised at the political savviness Hardik has demonstrated. At his rally, contrary to expectations, he spoke in Hindi, suggesting he wanted to reach via TV an audience beyond Gujarat. This impression has been further reinforced as he descended on Delhi for confabulating with the leaders of Jats, who have been demanding to be included in the central OBC list. All this has prompted the speculation that the movement has its mastermind(s) a group of people, unseen and unheard, guiding Hardik behind the curtains. The question to ask is: who are they? What is their motive? Hardik’s visit to Delhi suggests an attempt to widen the Patel movement beyond Gujarat. He claims he wants the Patels to be included in the OBC pool of reservation. But, in the same breath, he has also said that in case the Patels can’t be declared socially and educationally backward, then caste-based reservation should be scrapped in favour of one based on economic indices. His articulation pits him against a large majority of India’s population, as Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and OBCs are all beneficiaries of reservation. It would seem he can hope to win only the support of the upper castes and upwardly mobile social groups, such as the Jats and Patels, all of whom compete for government jobs and seats in educational institutes in what is called the general category. In addition, he can access the support of the corporate sector, which has been hostile to the suggestion of implementing affirmative action in its recruitment process. Though the troika of upper castes, upwardly mobile castes, and the corporate sector wield power disproportionate to their numbers, it is debatable whether beneficiaries of reservation would accept any dilution of this policy. The motive Therefore the question: What do the masterminds want? It can be always argued that the masterminds want to widen and deepen the movement to recalibrate the reservation policy. However, they would know that neither the Patels nor the Jats can be included in the OBC list through an executive fiat. Only the backward commissions at the Centre, or in the states, are empowered to declare them as OBCs. And that too after undertaking an elaborate socio-economic survey. Two, the cap of 50 per cent in reservations could be removed to include those who are poor, but this would flout the Supreme Court judgement in Indra Sawhney. The cap was introduced to strike a balance between the competing ideas of social justice and merit. It is possible for the state to pass a law to remove the 50 per cent ceiling and place it in the Ninth Schedule, thereby ensuring, at least theoretically, that the courts wouldn’t strike it down. However, a 2007 Supreme Court judgement says laws placed in this Schedule after 1973 can still be challenged on the grounds of violating the basic structure of the Constitution. In other words, even if Hardik’s attempt to recalibrate the reservation policy were to succeed, it would take years. This is why pundits have tried to analyse the timing of the movement and its location to identify the possible masterminds. The timing and location of the movement The Patel movement has acquired salience not only because of its fury, but also because it occurred in the state which Prime Minister Naredra Modi considers his veritable backyard, his model of good governance. Nevertheless, several commentaries, particularly those emanating from Gujarat, suggest the Patel movement enjoys the backing of the RSS to test whether caste-based reservation can be replaced by one based on economic criteria. It’s said this is the pet project of Modi, whose stature will be enhanced in case he does indeed succeed in revamping the reservation policy. [caption id=“attachment_2414938” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Modi during his televised appeal for peace in Gujarat. PTI image[/caption] You may disagree with Modi’s style of governance, or his ideology, yet you have to give him credit for his political sense. It is inconceivable to think of such a man endorsing a movement which is, at least rhetorically, tilted against the OBC population of 54 per cent. Even if we were to accept that Modi does indeed think the reservation policy needs a revamp, would he have supported such a movement now? He wouldn’t, because of the forthcoming Bihar Assembly election. Considering Modi’s pitch is “good governance”, in contrast to the “jungle raj” of Lalu Prasad Yadav, a burning Gujarat isn’t the quite the advertisement he needed to woo and win over the Biharis. Predictably, both Lalu and Nitish Kumar have referred to the curfew in Gujarat to mock Modi’s claim of being an exponent of good governance. Then again, he could have scarcely supported a movement which, essentially, questions the caste-based reservation system and demands its rollback or dilution. This is more so as Modi hopes to use the twin mantra of development, and his own OBC status, to wean away a section of Bihar’s OBCs to his fold. The Patel movement, in this sense, challenges Modi’s electoral strategy. Modi has preferred not to spell out his own position on the Patel movement, apart from appealing for the restoration of peace and harmony in Gujarat. Indeed, there are no gains for Modi in opposing caste-based reservation, at least not in the context of Bihar. This is because upper castes in Bihar, thanks to the JD (U)-RJD-Congress alliance, are already solidly behind Modi’s BJP. Yet their numbers aren’t significant enough for him to win the poll. He needs the support of lower castes to augment his vote-bank, the castes which are bound to look askance at the Patel movement. Bihar is vital for Modi to recover the momentum following the drubbing the BJP received in the Delhi election. Yet the Patel movement has seemingly queered Modi’s pitch. In many senses, there is a stark resemblance in the atmosphere before Delhi went to polls to what is being created before Biharis queue up at the polling booths. Till October-November last year, Modi was generating positive headlines and dominating the media, either because of a slew of projects he launched or trips abroad. It’s around this time the controversial ghar wapsi programme was initiated with tremendous fervour. RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat insisted on articulating the Hindutva idea, maverick BJP MPs decided to shoot their mouth, churches were attacked, and attempts were made to trigger riots in Delhi. The spectacle assumed such an alarming proportion that it did eventually become an important factor behind the drubbing the BJP received. Delhi is no Uttar Pradesh – its cosmopolitanism alienated, to a degree, even the middle class which had been Modi’s most zealous supporter. It was an important factor why the party huffed and puffed to win just three Assembly seats. Like then, there’s now a mood — and headlines, should we say — which is not conducive to Modi in Bihar. Should he lose Bihar, Modi’s stature will be diminished both inside the Sangh and the government, over which he looms large, unquestioned and unchallenged. It would seem his rivals are assiduously working for the defeat of Modi. Who could be his rivals? It is tempting to say his rivals belong to the Congress. But the Congress as an organisation has become moribund in Gujarat. It has been out of power for three long decades. It is also bitterly divided. It is improbable the Congress could have stoked the fire in Gujarat, which Rahul Gandhi hasn’t visited even after his mysterious 40-day sabbatical earlier this year. Indeed, whichever way you look, it is Modi’s rivals in the Sangh who appear to have masterminded or orchestrated the Patel rebellion in Gujarat. For long, there has been acute dismay among sections in the Sangh over Modi’s centralization of power, his silence on hot-button Hindutva issues, and his attempt to create a new persona for himself, evident from his visit to the mosque in Abu Dhabi and his meeting with the Sufis, to which he referred to in his Mann ki baat on 30 August. Obviously, you might say all this is in the realm of speculation. Yet it not insignificant that as Gujarat languished under curfew, there was a statement issued saying Modi is likely to attend the RSS’s three-day meeting, scheduled to begin on 2 September. As in diplomacy, so in politics, signaling is a tried and tested strategy. Regardless of whether or not Modi’s rivals in the Sangh will pull back from their precipitous politics, Gujarat has enhanced his anxiety, and increased his problems, before the Bihar polls. (Ajaz Ashraf is a journalist from Delhi. His novel, The Hour Before Dawn, published by HarperCollins, is available in bookstores)