Goa Exit Polls 2017: BJP managed to get a majority of 21 seats alone in 2012, but may need help from smaller parties this time

The exit polls released on Thursday projected a win for BJP in the 40-seat Goa Assembly. The exit polls put Congress in the second lead and predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) might not repeat its Delhi success in Goa.

Three exit polls Axis My India, C-Voter and MRC have given the BJP an edge over its competitors. The party is likely to win 15 to 22 seats, followed by Congress. MRC predicts 15 seats for BJP, 10 for Congress and AAP seven. Meanwhile, C-voter predicts that BJP may retain Goa with 18 seats and Congress may gain six seats. AAP which is making its debut in Goa might just end up only two seats. C-Voter exit poll predicts that BJP would be the single largest party in Goa.

Political commentator Ajay Jha tells Firstpost that based on the exit polls, BJP may form the new government but may not hit the majority mark of 21 seats. "Goa could be headed for a hung Assembly in which smaller parties could come into the picture. Congress winning the maximum 18 seats may open intense efforts and bargaining. As of now it is clear that AAP’s attempts to extend its 2014 Delhi experiment may have failed in Goa," he says. The smaller parties and the Independents are likely to be the kingmakers.

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In 2012 Goa Assembly Election, the BJP in alliance with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) had won comfortably by defeating the Congress in 24 out of 40 seats. BJP won 21 seats while the MGP won three seats. The Congress won nine seats with NCP. BJP MLA Frances D Souza won with maximum margin of votes. Goa Vikas Party and Independents managed two and five seats respectively. Right after the election, the Cortalim seat had to go for bypolls following MLA Mantanhy Saldanha’s death. It was the first time that BJP had won in a significant number of constituencies that had dominant minority population.

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Opinion polls like India Today-My Axis Poll predicts a clear majority for BJP and the Huffpost-CVoter projected a hung Assembly.

India Today-My Axis survey

According to the India Today-My Axis Poll, the incumbent BJP is expected to win between 23 and 27 seats, while the Congress will win just 12 to 14 seats.

However, it is bad news for the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which the poll predicts won't win more than two seats.

The main reason for BJP retaining the tourist state can be attributed to the split in anti-incumbency votes.

The poll also sought to know people's choice for the post of chief minister of Goa.

Around 35 percent of the total respondents wanted Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar back as the chief minister.

Former chief minister Digambar Kamat came a distant second, with 16 percent of the respondents wanting him to serve a second term. Incumbent Laxmikant Parsekar came third with 15 percent.

While Parsekar might not have been a popular chief ministerial choice, people seem to have a high level of satisfaction with his government's performance.

Around 53 percent of the total respondents were reported to have expressed satisfaction with government's performance while only 44 percent of the respondents were unhappy with the saffron party's regime.

If this poll mirrors the actual results on 11 March, then it is good news for the BJP.

Huffpost-CVoter poll

The poll predicts a hung Assembly in the state. While the Congress is expected to be the single largest party with 16 seats, the BJP is a close second with 15 seats.

The "others" seem to make a considerable dent in the prospects of the two major parties. This category, which includes the AAP and the Maharashtravadi Gomantak Party-led mahayuti, is expected to grab eight seats in the 40-member Assembly.

The vote share that the parties are expected to garner also tells a story.

While the BJP is predicted to be the largest party by vote share with 31 percent of the total votes, the Congress, which the poll predicts will win the most seats, is a distant second with 26 percent vote share. The "others" play a spoilsport, dividing the anti-incumbency votes yet contributing to a hung Assembly.

These parties are expected to grab at least 30 percent of the vote pie.

However, only 11 March will let us know if any of these pre-poll surveys hold true or are we in for some electoral surprises.

 


Published Date: Mar 09, 2017 08:17 pm | Updated Date: Mar 09, 2017 08:19 pm

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