Farmer suicides haven't gone up in Maharashtra: Why is Modi tweaking data?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aggressively attempting to make the high incidence of farmers’s suicide in Maharashtra an important election issue. The BJP is probably trying to make inroads in rural Maharashtra where it is not known to be strong traditionally. Modi has quoted government statistics to suggest Maharashtra has had more than 10 farmers committing suicide every day. Needless to say, he is blaming the Central and State governments, both led by Congress in the past, for their inability to prevent farmers’ suicide. It is true Maharashtra leads all other states in farm suicide cases. However, Modi is using statistics conveniently because the latest data as placed before Parliament by the NDA government reveals that the incidence of farmers committing suicide has declined in 2013 as compared to the previous year. In 2012 over 3,786 farmers committed suicide in Maharashtra, which the Prime Minister is citing in his election speeches. In 2013, this figure had dropped by over 20 percent. As per statistics presented by Minister for State for Agriculture, Maharashtra saw 3146 farmers’ suicide in 2013, which is 700 less than the number of suicides in 2012. [caption id=“attachment_1749383” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Farmer suicides have not gone up in Maharashtra. Agencies[/caption] However, Modi chose to use the 2012 data probably to get the rhetorical impact, which seems sharper when you say “more than 10 farmers commit suicide every day in Maharashtra”. In 2013, the figure had dropped to below 10 a day. Since election speeches are about overstating the negatives, one can fully understand the need to use the worse data set of 2012. However, Prime Minister Modi may have to rise above partisan rhetoric to treat farmers’ suicide as a truly national problem, which is not just confined to Maharashtra. If you look at the long term trend, which is more meaningful, the four worst states that account for over 60 percent of farmers’ suicides, are Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh (including Chattisgarh), Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. If one examines data from 1995 to 2013, these states have probably seen close to 1,50,000 farmers committing suicide due to debts and various other problems related to failure of crops and commercial viability of the farm. Modi must remember that the BJP has ruled at least two of these states for a considerable period of time. While Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh have been ruled by the BJP for a long period, Karnataka too has been under BJP rule for sometime during this period. Overall, at the national level, conservative estimates suggest over 2,00,000 farmers have committed suicide since 1995 across several states. The other states, which have consistently recorded 500 to 1000 farmers’ suicides annually in this period are West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh. The Left front leaders, who regularly raise the issue of farmers’ impoverishment, haven’t been able to prevent farm suicides either. Also, it is instructive to note that as per latest data presented by the NDA government in Parliament, Gujarat is seeing an increase in suicide by farmers. According to the national crime records bureau, Gujarat saw 582 farmers committing suicide in 2013, as compared with 564 in 2012. Here, it is pertinent to point out that Gujarat recorded the highest agriculture growth of 10 percent plus for over a decade since 2002. Evidently, the famed agriculture growth story was no guarantee against farmers taking their lives on a significant scale even in Gujarat. So whether it is the Congress, Left or BJP ruled states, the structural problems with agriculture economics dogs all the states. So Modi’s focus on Maharashtra farmers suicide may appear a bit skewed. The BJP manifesto has promised to focus on farm economics. But so far, the BJP has not done much to bring any relief to the farmers, particularly in this relatively difficult year for the agriculture sector. Modi had made a specific election promise to farmers – of ensuring them a 50 percent profit over all input costs. Five months on, one doesn’t hear much about the implementation of those promises. The only concrete decision the BJP government has taken is not to sign the WTO agreement on trade facilitation on the ground that India needs enough freedom to devise its own farm economics in tandem with its food security imperatives. This needs to be followed up with detailed micro level policies to make the farm sector viable and sustainable in the medium to long term. It was time the government came up with a white paper on a whole range of questions relating to the well being of farmers and inextricably linked to it is India’s food security. Modi needs to transcend electoral politics when dealing with the agrarian crisis.