Exit polls: J&K immune to Modi wave, but Jharkand offers a clean sweep

All the five phases of polling are over in the Assembly Elections for Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand. This season of polling saw high voter turnouts in both the states, especially in J&K with people braving threats from separatists and the cold. The Election Commission termed the over all voter turnout of 65 percent in all the five phases in J&K as ‘historic and unprecedented’ and while the BJP had hoped such a large turnout would go in its favour, things don’t look so good for the party in a state that was the prized target in its Mission 44 plan. [caption id=“attachment_1939439” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. PTI[/caption] According to the AXIS-APM poll projections for Jammu and Kashmir, PDP emerges as the winner with the highest number of seats ranging between 36 and 41, but falls short of majority in a state with 87 assembly seats. The exit poll predicts 16-22 seats for the BJP, 9-13 seats for Omar Abdullah’s NC, 9-13 for the Congress 2-4 seats for JKNPP and 4-6 seats for other parties. The numbers come as a disappointment for team Narendra Modi and Amit Shah given their ambition for 44+ seats and also point to a clear anti-incumbency wave against the National Conference government in the state. Meanwhile, even though India Today-CSDS opinion polls don’t offer numbers in terms of seat sharing in J&K, it reveals that PDP’s Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is the winner when it comes to the chief ministerial candidate. Mufti was voted the most preferred CM by 23% in Kashmir and 11 percent in Jammu, followed by Omar Abdullah where 14 percent in Jammu and 13 percent in Kashmir thought he should be CM. BJP’s Dr Jitender Singh got only 6 percent votes in Jammu and 1 percent in Kashmir. BJP’s Sheshadri Chari tried to put a favorable spin on Mufti’s numbers saying, “People have seen that Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is not speaking in the same manner as Omar Abdullah about the BJP. So they see him as a politician who would be able to deal better with Delhi.” The CSDS survey also reveals that the Narendra Modi government at the Centre faces a trust deficit with the people of the Kashmir valley, and it may explain why the Modi factor failed to work its magic as it did in the other states like Maharashtra. The trust numbers also point a clear divide in the state which the BJP has been unable to overcome. In Jammu 52 percent said they had high trust in the Centre compared to only 16 percent in the Kashmir valley. As for Narendra Modi as a Prime Minister, 60 percent in Jammu 69% said they highly trusted him, compared to a paltry 17 percent in Kashmir. Since PDP’s projected numbers won’t add up to a majority, the party will need an alliance partner to form a government in J&K. Otherwise, it would lead to a hung assembly. However, the PDP seems undecided on who to pick as an ally. Party spokesperson Dr Sameer Kaul told Headlines Today, “There is a trust deficit between the country and J&K. We have worked with both the Congress and the BJP. We have had no problems in working with any government at the Centre as long as the beneficiary is people of the state. By the 23 December we will know what the people want. Once we ascertain what the people want, we will take a decision. At the moment it could be either of them, as long as they work for the people.” While the BJP faces disappointment in Jammu and Kashmir, exit poll numbers for Jharkhand prove that Modi’s honeymoon phase is not over in other parts of India. Both AXIS-APM and India Today Group-CICERO exit polls predict a clean sweep for the BJP in the state. According to the India Today Group-CICERO exit polls, the BJP is likely to get 43 -51 seats, JMM may get between 14-18 seats, the Congress is reduced to 7-11 seats and as are the other smaller parties. Meanwhile AXIS-APM gives 37-43 seats to the BJP, JVM 12-16 seats, JMM 10-14 seats, Congress 4-6 seats, RJD - 3-5 seats, Others 4-8 seats. If the numbers prove correct, this will be the first majority BJP government in Jharkhand. “Not a very big surprise if Lok Sabha is to be taken as a trend,” senior academic Manisha Priyam told Headlines Today, adding, “Factionalism in Jharkhand was indeed the bane of the party. Clearly Modi and Amit Shah have put the factionalism behind them and it has been very important.” BJP’s Sambit Patra however confidently predicted, “Both in Jammu and Kashmir and in Jharkhand, something unexpected will happen for the first time. For the first time Jharkhand will get a taste of stability. It will be the first time a BJP government will be formed in Jammu and Kashmir.”