by FP Politics May 15, 2014 09:20 IST
While there is some dispute over how many seats it will finally end up with, what doesn't seem to be in doubt across post-poll surveys is that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is set to come to power on 16 May.
While other channels released their results earlier, the last of the exit polls by NDTV-Hansa predicted that the BJP-led NDA would comfortably cross the required number of seats and will finish with 279 seats. The survey even said the NDA could finish with 300 seats in the best case scenario.
The poll predicted that the Congress will end with 103 seats and that other parties, mainly regional ones, would finish with 161 seats between them.
The survey also predicted that the BJP would finish with 56 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the second highest tally it had ever achieved in the state. The highest tally the BJP has ever garnered in the state is 57 seats in 1998. The survey, unlike others before it, also predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party would finish with four seats (2 seats in Delhi and 2 seats in Punjab).
Meanwhile the final version of the IBN-CSDS National Election Tracker survey -- which includes the last day of polling -- the BJP-led NDA is expected to comfortably reach a majority with between 274-286 seats. The Congress-led UPA is expected to win just 92-102 seats with the Congress possibly winning the lowest total ever in a general election.
The inclusion of the final phase of voting in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal only marginally shifted the national vote shares of the major parties, notably inching the BJP number down from 34 percent to 33.5 percent.
Another overall tally has come from ABP-Nielsen, which has given 281 seats to the NDA and just 97 for UPA. AAP has got 4 seats, while others (which will translate to the Third Front in this case) will win 161 seats.
A survey by Times Now-ORG says the NDA is set to win 249 seats, while the UPA is set to win 148.
Zee News in its post poll survey projected the NDA getting 289 seats, the UPA winning just 100 seats and other parties will divide 153 seats between them. A survey by India TV gave the NDA also gave the NDA alliance 289 seats and the UPA 106 seats.
A poll conducted by India Today said that the BJP-led NDA could end with 261-283 seats, while the Congress-led UPA will win 110-120 seats.
Here's what all the exit polls have forecast:
Here are key states and the findings according to the CNN-IBN-Lokniti survey:
The numbers predict Modi tsunami in Uttar Pradesh
The overall picture remains about the same in UP which saw voting in the remaining 18 constituencies on 12 May. Comparing the earlier NES numbers with the final tally, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party have each gained one percent each in their vote share, reflecting the fact that these seats were their traditional strongholds. The BJP vote share has therefore concurrently fallen from 40 to 39 percent.
Modi sweeps Bihar, but polls split over Nitish's fate
The final vote estimate for Bihar shows the Congress-RJD combine inching up by 1 percent to 30 percent. This upward movement likely reflects the fact that Lalu Yadav's momentum carried him upward in the final 6 north west Bihar constituencies that went to polls on May 12.
In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK expected to win big
In West Bengal, Mamata and TMC to continue to prevail
TRS to win big thanks to formation of Telangana
BJP's TDP alliance may not pay big rewards in Seemandhra
Shivraj Chouhan to win prestige battle in Madhya Pradesh
BJP's dream of clean sweep by Modi in Gujarat may come true
Maharashtra Congress should worry with the result in state
Congress to hold on to Kerala, but Left makes gains
In Delhi, the BJP expected to hold sway
In Punjab, BJP-SAD combine won't be hit by anti-incumbency
In Odisha, the BJD is expected to remain the dominant force
In Chhattisgarh, BJP's dominance continues
In Haryana, the Congress loses ground to BJP
In Himachal Pradesh, a dead heat between Congress, BJP
In Jharkhand, the BJP should win comfortably
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