Election tracker: Telangana decision aids YSR Congress most

The creation of Telangana may benefit the Congress from total annihilation, but the the biggest gainer in Seemandhra, the part of Andhra left after Telangana is carved out, could be the YSR Congress headed by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, which gets 45 percent of the vote. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam would be the second gainer, its vote rising from 28 percent in January to 33 percent in February. While the Lok Sabha vote shares in Telangana show the Congress marginally ahead with 32 percent, followed by the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) with 26 percent, the BJP with 10 percent could prove to be a useful swing ally - especially if TRS sticks to its decision not to merge with the Congress. According to a survey carried out by Lokniti-IBN Tracker survey, while both YSR Congress and TDP have made gains in Seemandhra after the Telangana decision, the BJP is the biggest loser (its vote share falling from 9 percent in January to 3 percent in February). It’s best hope is to ally with the TDP and hope for the best. What is clear is that if the Congress and TRS had stuck together - they might still have seat adjustments - they would have swept the Telangana poll, with an overwhelming 58 percent of the vote. .  which they still might But with the TRS deciding deciding not to merge with the Congress, the two parties could end up winning an equal number of seats in the Telangana region. [caption id=“attachment_1418891” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Jagan Reddy could be the kingmaker from the state. PTI[/caption] In the Seemandhra region, the YSR Congress is seen coming up the biggest winner, and is expected to mop up 11 to 17 seats. The second biggest party in the state is expected to be the Telugu Desam Party, which could return from near political obscurity to winning anywhere between 10 to 16 seats. The Congress could win the bulk of its seats in the Telangana region but the absence of an ally could mean they would end up with anywhere from 6 to 12 seats. The TRS, which isn’t going with the Congress in the election, could also end up with 6 to 12 seats. Unless it seeks to ally with BJP. The survey found that despite the creation of the state by the Congress-led UPA government, almost 30 percent of the persons polled in Telangana gave credit for the formation of the state to K Chandrashekhar Rao and the TRS. About 28 percent gave credit to the central government and only 13 percent gave credit to the Congress high command in Delhi. A majority of the respondents in Telangana felt that the Congress had handled the issue of creating the new state properly. While 46 percent approved of the Congress’s efforts, only 17 percent thought the party had done a ham handed job of it. In the Seemandhra region, not surprisingly, a majority, 63 percent, were opposed to the manner in which the Congress had acted. The centre’s decision to award special status to the region may help it win a few hearts but it would be wishful thinking to expect it to reverse the tide. The decision to form the new state has also created a change in attitude towards the UPA government and its Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Dissatisfaction with the UPA government has come down significantly in the Telangana region (9 percentage points) and increased only marginally (4 percentage points) in the Seemandhra region. As far as Prime Ministerial candidates go, the most popular choice across both regions of the state remains Narendra Modi, despite his popularity reducing slightly in the Telangana and Seemandhra regions between January and February. In what might come as a consolation to him, however, Rahul Gandhi has also seen his popularity fall in both regions. The survey reveals that the two biggest national parties may have pushed the most for the creation of the new state but it will be the regional parties that stand to benefit the most from it. The YSR Congress, TDP and TRS may have done well to keep their options open on alliances as they go into elections and could well be kingmakers after the elections depending on their performance.