Election tracker: Is Jagan the biggest loser in Andhra Pradesh?

With its promise of a loan waiver for farmers in the to-be-formed state of Telangana and its pre-poll alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party almost hammered out now, N Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party are expected to make sudden, big gains in Andhra Pradesh. Seen as a divided state, the data thrown up by the latest phase of the Election Tracker survey by CSDS-Lokniti shows that while the Telangana Rashtra Samiti has expectedly gained in popularity in Telangana, going from an estimated votes share of 26 percent in February to 34 percent in the March survey, it is the TDP that has made the biggest gains in Seemandhra, going from 45 percent estimated vote share in February to 33 percent in the March survey. [caption id=“attachment_1460943” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  YSR Congress Chief Jagan Mohan Reddy.[/caption] Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress was until recently considered the kingmaker from Andhra Pradesh and expected to emerge from the imbroglio over statehood for Telangana as the biggest gainer in Andhra politics. While the YSR Congress was anyway expected to have little to no traction in Telangana, the party was estimated to win a 45 percent vote share based on the findings of the February survey, a decisive voteshare for the region. In March, respondents have suddenly shown a rapidly declining level of faith in Jagan. Asked the question ‘If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for?’, only 33 percent of respondents in Seemandhra picked the YSR Congress. Conversely the TDP, which was set to win a 33 pc voteshare as per the February survey, is now set to win a 39 percent voteshare in Seemandhra. Firstpost has reported last week that there are multiple reasons that the earlier elation in the YSR Congress team has not survived. Not only has Jagan not nursed the party at all in Telangana, in Seemandhra too, his fortunes are dipping slightly, with him unable to allay fears that he might end up merging his party with the Congress after the elections. And besides, his wavering stand on Narendra Modi who he recently lauded as a “modern day politician” has not gone down well with traditional supporters of his late father.