Delhi Assembly Election: It's still a contest between Modi and Kejriwal

The Delhi assembly election will finally be held on 7 February, just a week ahead of  the scheduled termination of President’s rule. But it will happen all in a rush, with neither the BJP nor the Congress even ready with its poll list. As per the election schedule announced by the Election Commission today (12 January), parties have less than 25 days in which to get their act together before voting day. The results will be out on 10 February. [caption id=“attachment_2042557” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] PM Narendra Modi (left) and Arvind Kejriwal. Agencies[/caption] Individual candidates will have to hurry, more so in the case of the BJP, where the list of candidates has not been announced. In the case of the Congress, only a third of candidates have been named. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has a slight edge here for it has given tickets to all its candidates well in advance. Fighting a  second election in just 14 months is in any case a tough challenge for the candidates. The redrawn battle lines make it clear that the February 2015 elections will be different from the December 2013 one. The last time it was a triangular contest between the Congress, BJP and AAP, but this  time around it is broadly going to be direct fight between the BJP and AAP. The December 2013 election was about who could best encash the anger against the Congress— AAP or BJP. This election is about who can give the residents of Delhi a better life and has a better vision for turning the national capital into one of the finest cities in the world. The parties remain the same but key players and pre-poll agendas have changed. So much so that AAP is not talking about electricity tariffs with the same vigour as it used to earlier, and its pet Jan Lokpal Bill has been assigned to cold storage. Delhi is “Mini India” and as such its often reflect the mood of cosmopolitan India. But this time around the question is being posed the other way around: whether Delhi will reflect the overall mood of the rest of India, where the mood has been largely pro-Modi, pro-BJP of late, as reflected in recent assembly election results from four states. In December 2013, Delhi proved to be an aberration. It gave a badly fractured mandate while the rest of the nation clearly went for Modi. In the Parliamentary elections, the capital corrected its mood and gave all seven seats to BJP. Mod’s rivals would like to see the Delhi results as an indication of a change in poll fortunes after 2014. If the two sworn rivals —Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav— have come together in Bihar,  in Delhi Congress’s three-term chief minister Sheila Dikshit has pledged an open post-poll support to Arvind Kejriwal in case of a hung assembly. Dikshit’s statement is indicative of the prevailing mood in the party which ruled Delhi for 15 years – it’s not in the running for power. 2014 has been a defining year for Narendra Modi and the BJP. He won all contests for his party and himself, be it for Parliament or the four assembly elections. But as  2015 unfolds, he has to prove his popularity afresh in Delhi. By intention or by default, it is so far a Modi versus Kejriwal election unless BJP throws a last-minute surprise and names a chief ministerial candidate. Dr Harsh Vardhan, the BJP leader who couldn’t become chief minister in December 2013, is now a Union minister. Reflecting the changed demographic situation in the capital, a Poorvanchali, Satish Upadhyay, is at the helm, guiding the party’s poll preparedness. If this is a big prestige election for the BJP, it is do-or-die for AAP and its chief Avind Kejriwal. The party that surprised everyone over a year ago hopes to regain some of its lost credibility  through this election. The fact that Modi targeted Kejriwal personally at Saturday’s rally, and dwelt at length on his brand of politics, is indicative of the fact that he and his party recognise him as a tough challenge. Moreover, the fact remains that Modi’s popularity is higher than that of his party in Delhi. So the party will have to use him as the trump card. In the last election, Kejriwal provided a clean and eager face to the Delhi electorate. A year later, he has been tested in Delhi and across the country in parliamentary elections. That has taken away some of his sheen. The middle class, which flocked to him in December 2013, has since moved towards  Modi. But Kejriwal  still has a good rating and following among economically and socially weaker sections and he is still seen to be an honest politician by many. His support and volunteer base may have shrunk,  but he has the advantage of being the only declared chief ministerial candidate in this election. This is where he scores over the BJP. Eight months ago “Modi for PM, Kejriwal for CM” was a slogan for a section of his supporters. But with Modi entering the election arena to take on Kejriwal, one can’t be sure Kejriwal can avoid this confrontation. Modi has picked up the broom with his Swachh Bharat Abhiyan; it is time for Kejriwal to reclaim his Jhadu. It promises to be an engrossing fight. Whichever way one looks at it, the battle is still Modi’s BJP versus Kejriwal’s AAP. Unlike 2013, their parties are secondary to this fight.