Congress surge in Uttarakhand despite BJP performance

Total seats in the assembly: 70

Half-way mark: 36

Post election survey projections:

INC 31-41
BJP 22-32
Others 4-10

The Indian National Congress is projected to be the largest party in Uttarakhand, propelled by a nine percent gain in vote share from 30 percent in 2007 to 2012, according to the Post Election survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) among 1,680 respondents. The vote share could translate to a minimum of 31 seats, five short of an absolute majority, and a maximum of 41 seats.

Minister of State for Agriculture, Food Processing Industries and Parliamentary Affairs, Harish Rawat. Image courtesy PIB

The BJP, while fighting admirably against anti-incumbency, have managed to retain their 2007 vote share of 32 percent. The INC’s gain of 9 percent vote share has come at the expense of the BSP, whose popularity slips from 12 per cent to 7 percent.

The INC’s vote share drops when compared to the 2009 (Lok Sabha Poll) but this is the party’s best performance yet in an Assembly poll:

2012 (Estimate) - Party vise performance Uttarakhand Assembly Poll

Ironically, the BJP's BC Khanduri is found to be the most popular chief ministerial candidate. Khanduri, according to 33 per cent of the respondents, is the most preferred CM choice. Harish Rawat of the Congress, who might end up being the CM. is at the second spot with 13 percent of voters stating a preference for him. Obviously, the popularity for Khanduri does not seem to have translated into votes for his party, BJP.

And, as an aside, for all the talk about the 'success' the Lokayukta in Uttarakhand, 61 percent of the state's voters see the BJP as either 'Very corrupt' or 'Somewhat corrupt'. The Congress-led UPA is seen in better light.

Both Central and State government rated almost equally on corruption

If the BJP-run state government is seen by 61 percent as corrupt, why don’t aggrieved citizens complain to the Lokayukta? It’s because the majority—55 percent—have not heard about the Lokayukta law!

In a survey conducted by CNN-IBN, 33 percent people want BC Khanduri as the Uttarakhand chief minister followed by Harish Rawat with 13 percent. Watch the video below: