Congress' alliance with AAP: Why divorce isn't an option

New Delhi: AAP’s government hasn’t even been sworn yet and it looks like the outside support alliance from Congress is already in trouble. In the current Delhi Assembly AAP has 28 seats, while Congress has 8 seats. BJP has 32 seats. All parties are well short of the 36 half-way mark required to form the government. With outside support from the Congress, the AAP looked set to form the government. However that may not be so easy. On Tuesday, there were reports that the Congress is seriously considering withdrawing support from AAP. Congress leader Janardan Dwivedi was quoted as saying , “There is also an opinion that perhaps the decision to support AAP in this manner was not correct. Some people feel this.” He also emphasised that, “…Outside support is never unconditional. It is always issue-based.” [caption id=“attachment_1306311” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  To hold or not to hold? Reuters[/caption] While Congress might be re-evaluating its decision to support the AAP, political experts that Firstpost spoke to feel that such a decision won’t be good for the overall image of the Congress in Delhi and perhaps even beyond. Sanjay Kumar, professor at Centre for Study of Developing Societies told us, “If the Congress had taken a stand earlier that they will not offer support to the AAP, that would have been fine. However at this stage if they say they want to withdraw support, that will harm the image of the party. Supposing they do this, they withdraw support and there is re-election in the state, I feel the Congress will do very badly and go down to half of what they are right now in Delhi.” However, he feels this current drama won’t have any impact on the national stage at least where the Congress is concerned. According to Pradip Kumar Dutta, professor at the Delhi University, the matter of Congress withdrawing support from AAP would have a negative effect for the grand-old party. He points that firstly, “This isn’t a private understanding between two parties. There is a constitutional element to it as the Congress has gone to the LG and written that they will extend support. If they withdraw support, that would be compromising the Constitutional credibility of the promise they have given.” Secondly he says, that at the popular level it would reflect the Congress as irresponsible and suspect. “It would seem like the Congress has something to hide. The AAP has promised to investigate charges of corruption and if the Congress withdraws support, it reflects badly on them. The AAP will be seen as a party that is ready to act on corruption and that they are ready to practice politics with a difference.” An alliance with the AAP is important for Congress’ image, feels Dipankar Gupta, former professor at JNU and author of the book Revolution from Above: India’s Future and the Citizen Elite. Gupta says, “From an organisational point of view, the Congress needs the AAP to shed its image of a corrupt government. If they do withdraw support, it won’t be good for them at all. They need to repair their image before they move on into the general Lok Sabha elections.” He also points out that not everyone in the Congress will be happy with this and says, “There will be people in the Congress who won’t be happy with the decision to support AAP. There’s a fear that AAP will call for inquiries into corruption-related issues and it will affect some people in the Congress.” As far as the nature of the AAP and Congress alliance Kumar points out that this isn’t going to be an easy relationship. He says, “It will be turbulent set up. This is a very, very uneasy alliance and Congress has been pushed into a corner into offering outside support. Over the months, Congress is likely to read up the AAP manifesto in detail and go after them on each point. There might be a lot of protests and dharnas from the Congress.” Dutta also points out that that the withdrawal of support from AAP would not be good for the BJP either. He says, “The anti-Congress vote would swing more in favour of AAP and they are likely to benefit. BJP will also be badly affected as they are the other party to benefit from anti-Congress votes.” “Symbolic power becomes even more exaggerated. If Congress withdraws support, it will be self-destructive for them,” he points out. As far as defection and the possibility of breaking up the AAP is concerned, Kumar says this is very unlikely. He says, “Defection will highly improbable under the current anti-defection law. One third of AAP MLAs would have to leave the party and that seems unlikely. Binny is a one off case where an MLA is unhappy. It is highly unlikely that there would be others as well.” For now, it seems the Congress is in a tight spot. Withdrawing support from AAP might not be good for its image at all while on the other hand AAP is likely to launch investigations into corruption charges against former Congress MLAs. As Gupta points, out that, “For the Congress, the decision to support AAP isn’t risk-free at all.”