Cabinet reshuffle: Between BRICS and Pitru Paksha, Narendra Modi may draw cards on 2 September

Months of speculation on expansion-cum-reshuffle of the Union council of ministers could finally end on 2 September evening. At least that is what looks possible and is the only time window when Prime Minister Narendra Modi could hold this exercise if this has to be done now on priority. Suresh Prabhu’s exit from the Ministry of Railways and entry of a new defence minister could be the big news of that day. [caption id=“attachment_3192690” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] File image of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. AFP[/caption] Friday evening is the only time in next few days before the beginning of a fortnight-long ‘Pitri or Pitru Paksha’ (period for religious offering to departed elders), which is considered inauspicious by Hindus, when President Ramnath Kovind, Modi and BJP president Amit Shah would be in the national Capital. While there had been no two views in the ruling BJP circle and the political leadership in the government about the need for a last cabinet reshuffle of the Modi government, the big question was about timing and nobody, the howsoever senior, had a real idea as to when Modi (in consultation with Shah) would actually do it. The turn of events in the last few days have heightened speculations and Firstpost gathered from senior leaders in the party and the government that Cabinet reshuffle was now imminent in next few days. President Ram Nath Kovind is out of the capital on 1 September. He is going to Tirupati where besides worshipping Lord Venkateswara at Tirumala, he would be attending some other programmes organised by Andhra Pradesh government including those meant for the welfare of Scheduled Caste communities. He will be returning to New Delhi on Friday afternoon. Shah will also be away from Delhi during this period to attend BJP ideological fountainhead RSS’s conclave in Vrindavan. He would be accompanied by BJP general secretary (organisation) Ram Lal. Home minister Rajnath Singh too could be there to attend the meet. They all could return to Delhi by the afternoon of 2 September. This date and time have become important because Modi will be leaving for BRICS Summit in China on 3 September. The BRICS Summit is scheduled for 3-5 September. From China, the prime minister will go to Myanmar and then return to Delhi on 7 August. Kovind too will leave Delhi on 3 September for a two-day trip to Gujarat. By the time Modi would return to Delhi “Pitru Paksha” would have begun. It is assumed that during this period an exercise like cabinet reshuffle wouldn’t take place. This effectively means that the idea of cabinet reshuffle would be postponed for some time, possibly for a month till the conclusion of Dussehra and Muharram. A section of BJP leaders, thus, are optimistic about 2 September. And they have a reason for that. Modi had undertaken the last cabinet reshuffle-cum-expansion on 5 July 2016 and he had left for a five-day foreign tour to Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. Will Modi follow a similar schedule now, ie, complete a cabinet reshuffle and then leave for a foreign tour? One would know the answer in the next two days. An NDTV report said that while responding to queries from reporters on his tenure as defence minister, finance minister Arun Jaitley had quipped: “At least I hope not very long.” There are some clear vacancies in the government: finance minsiter Arun Jaitley has additional charge of defence ministry, science and technology minister Harshvardhan has the additional charge of forest and environment, rural development and Panchayati raj minister Narendra Singh Tomar is also looking after urban affairs, and textile minister Smriti Irani has additional charge of the information and broadcasting ministry. The question in everyone’s mind is who would Modi pick to head the defence ministry. The party has limited talent pool, something which was exemplified in the later part of 2014 when Modi had made Manohar Parrikar move to Delhi from Goa and inducted Suresh Prabhu from outside of BJP’s bench strength for the railways. Prabhu’s exit from the railway ministry is certain. The question is who would be given charge of the railway ministry to fulfil Modi’s dream. It is ironic that the replacements for both Parrikar and Prabhu would have to be taken together in the last cabinet expansion just as they were inducted together in first cabinet expansion in November 2014. Modi has another 18 months to deliver before the 2019 General Elections to Lok Sabha begins. He thus needs to weed out the dead wood from the government and infuse new blood in the cabinet. The PMO has undertaken a performance review of ministers. This cabinet reshuffle could be an occasion for Modi to give a message to the nation that he cares for performance and merit. Whispers in the power corridors suggest that the two top leaders have also accessed information collected by various wings on individual ministers’ personal conduct, in office and outside. And that could spell trouble for some. Recently Modi had warned his ministers in clear words to stay away from the growing tendency to stay in a five-star hotel during their official tours and availing other perks of power extended to them by PSUs. Nitish Kumar’s return to NDA would mean that JD(U) will get a representation in the government. JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP RCP Sinha, a close confidant of Nitish, is almost sure to be inducted into the Cabinet. AIADMK too could become part of Modi government. Shah has finished his 100 days tour around the country. And now, he has a fair idea of whether there’s pro or anti-incumbency against individual chief ministers and ministers from the state at the centre. In the last few days, he has met over half a dozen ministers at his Delhi residence and there have been a lot of speculations about what would it mean for ministers who were called for one-to-one meetings. He may go for an organisational overhaul by inducting some ministers in the organisation to work for his new 350-seat target for 2019. Then there are seven vacancies in Raj Bhawans and they need to be filled up, and several senior leaders are looking up to that. However, Thursday’s appointment of Mahendra Nath Pandey, minister of state in the HRD ministry, as the state president of BJP Uttar Pradesh, indicates that the process for cabinet reshuffle-cum-expansion has already been set in motion.