Bye-bye Manmohan; Hello Rahul

(This article was written and published on 1 April. When we wrote it we scarcely imagined it to become a real possibility so soon but thanks to the vagaries of Indian politics we have been proven wrong.) Dramatic changes are sweeping across the Indian political landscape, with the top leadership of the Congress working overtime to convert the crises confronting the government , which is besieged on all fronts, into an opportunity to infuse generational change at the top and alter the political narrative to its advantage. Under one of the many scenarios being worked out, Manmohan Singh will likely step down as Prime Minister right after the Budget session of Parliament and be elevated to the post of President, making way for a younger leader – most likely Rahul Gandhi – to take over. In fact, by some accounts, Manmohan Singh is believed to have already offered to resign, but has been urged by Congress president Sonia Gandhi to hold on until after the Budget session so as to put an effective succession plan in place. “Madam sees this as a chance to revive the party’s fortunes,” a senior leader who is privy to the imminent changes told Firstpost on condition of anonymity. “And you know what, she might just be able to pull it off.” [caption id=“attachment_262270” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“Manmohan Singh exit stage left. Enter Rahul Gandhi. Reuters”]  [/caption] Given the hush-hush nature of the deliberations, most of the leaders in the inner circles of decision-making in the Congress refused to go on record on this matter. But from interactions with reliable players in key positions, we’ve been able to draw the contours of the succession plan that’s in the works. The most proximate trigger for this chain of events is believed to be Manmohan Singh’s decision to step down in the light of the latest controversy over the letter from the Army chief, Gen VK Singh, to him, which was leaked to the media. Sources close to the Prime Minister said that this was for him a “soul-awakening moment.” “In the past eight years, he’s tolerated many humiliations and efforts to whittle down his authority,” the source said, explaining Manmohan Singh’s state of mind. “But the leak of the letter marked a defining moment: he feels he is being used as a pawn in bigger, more dangerous games, the nature of which he cannot fathom.” He, therefore, sounded out Sonia Gandhi and offered to resign, the source added. “He feels he’s played the role of Casabianca to perfection – you know, the boy who stood on the burning deck whence all but he had fled.” But now, Manmohan Singh evidently feels it’s time for him to bail out and “salvage what he can of his reputation that has been tarnished “ - particularly over the past three years since an avalanche of scams overran the government under his watch. Sources close to 10, Janpath confirm that Manmohan Singh did meet Sonia Gandhi on Saturday. But they have a different account of what transpired at that meeting. “It was Madam who, with the power of suggestion, gently steered the Prime Minister into offering to resign,” said the source. “The fact of it is that Madam realises that Dr Manmohan Singh’s utility as a front-office man who can be the shock absorber - for the party and the First Family – is past its sell-by date.” From that account, Sonia Gandhi commiserated with Manmohan Singh’s angst, and agreed that a man so erudite ought not to have his name dragged into every petty corruption scandal. When Manmohan Singh then offered to resign, she feigned disappointment, but suggested that he hold on until after the Budget session of Parliament so that she could put a succession plan in place. Sonia Gandhi then offered Manmohan Singh a hint of what she had in mind: elevate Manmohan Singh to the office of President, elections for which are due in months, and have “someone else” take over as Prime Minister. Precisely who that “someone else” was not made explicit, but there’s reason to believe that Sonia Gandhi reckons that her son Rahul Gandhi’s time has come. “Until not long ago, Madam saw (Defence Minister) AK Antony as a likely stop-gap arrangement to take over from Dr Manmohan Singh, but after he’s gone and shot himself in the foot with the latest scandals involving defence deals, Madam feels he may be as much a liability as Dr Singh,” the source added. “She’s had enough of bench-warmers. She is now inclined to cut to the chase” – and install Rahul Gandhi. Unlike a lot of other leaders, Sonia Gandhi isn’t overly worried about Rahul Gandhi’s signal lack of success in the recent round of Assembly elections, particularly in Uttar Pradesh. “Madam does not see it as his failing, but as a failure of the party to communicate his message well enough.” She proposes to remedy that by launching a propaganda offensive centred around Rahul Gandhi’s leadership qualities. A leading award-winning documentary filmmaker has been commissioned to do a bio-pic on Rahul Gandhi, which will be widely disseminated. “Plus, don’t forget: we still have a lot of goodwill among most of the electronic media, and we’ll be looking to leverage that for political gain,” the source added. “The chips are down, and it’s time for them to pay up.” The bottomline, the source noted, is that Sonia Gandhi calculates that there’s nothing wrong with Rahul Gandhi that a few rose-tinted media narratives won’t fix. The idea of being “kicked upstairs” to Rashtrapati Bhavan appeared to appeal to Manmohan Singh, the source close to 10, Janpath claimed. “Dr Singh is astute enough to see that a stint as President will not only calm his frayed nerves, it will also give him a chance to wipe out all the bad karma he’s accumulated as what some would call a dysfunctional Prime Minister.” Leaders of other leading parties responded to the dramatic developments in predictable fashion. Senior BJP leader LK Advani said that he had no tears to shed for Manmohan Singh, but added that while he had characterised Singh as the “weakest Prime Minister ever”, it appeared that Rahul Gandhi would “lower the bar even further.” Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been seen among some circles as the BJP’s most likely candidate for prime ministership in the next general election and the most likely challenger to Rahul Gandhi, would not respond to requests for comments on Rahul Gandhi’s likely ascendance. But late on Saturday, he posted a cryptic message on Twitter, which merely said: “Game on!” Some of the UPA’s allies were, however, less than enthused. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee said she felt outraged, as a principal constituent of the UPA coalition, that she had not been consulted on the imminent leadership change in the government. “Do they take us for fools? Is this an April Fool’s Day joke?” she wondered. Curiously, she may have for once been right. (Dear readers: We know life is hard and life is earnest. At Firstpost, we’ve been doing more than most to focus sharply on the key issues of the day. But we felt that it’s okay for us to loosen up and get quirky once in a while. What better day than April 1 to have a dollop of fun? Here’s hoping you will take it in the right spirit, and not be too harsh on us!)