Bullwhip benefits Mamata; TN, Kerala will test pundits

By Jai Mrug Elections 2011 have dished out a pot-pourri of exit polls, involving virtually every configuration of outcomes in our first-past-the-post electoral system. The polls throw some light on key facets of voter behaviour and how they impact electoral outcomes in a completely fragmented mandate or in a system of consolidated alliances. West Bengal illustrates what one terms in psephology as the Bullwhip Effect. [caption id=“attachment_7860” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Pundits confirm berth for Mamata Banerjee from Rail Bhavan to Writers’ Building. PTI”]  [/caption] Most exit polls are agreed on the outcome in West Bengal .The projected  tally for the Trinamool Congress is in the range of 210 to 235 – the lower end being predicted by Headlines Today while 235 is the highest predicted by C-Voter. This is a classical case study of the Bullwhip Effect. The term refers to the phenomenon where, as polling progresses, more and more undecided voters, and even supporters of the runner-up, swing towards the winner. It is much like a “winner takes all” current. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool Front led in 190 assembly segments. If, as projected by most exit polls, the alliance wins upwards of 220 to 230 seats, then certainly more CPI(M) supporters than the 2009 polls would have switched allegiance. This could see the CPI(M) post a poor tally even in some of its traditional strongholds in the highland plains of West Bengal - the agricultural heartland that was the beneficiary of Operation Barga – where sharecroppers were given a good deal. It’s not just a vote against the government but a vote against the complete Left establishment. [caption id=“attachment_7873” align=“alignleft” width=“200” caption=“Jai Mrug”]  [/caption] Tamil Nadu presents a picture in contrast. While most exit polls predict a close fight and a mandate going either way, only the one by C-Voter predicts a one-way sweep for the AIADMK front (168-176) that could render a simple majority for the AIADMK on its own in the assembly.  In fact, the vote shares of the two rival fronts are projected to be very close to each other (DMK 44% and AIADMK 46%) and, therefore, in one poll projection (HT – ORG Marg) the lower bounds of none of the fronts provide for a majority (115 for DMK-led front and 105 for AIADMK-led front) while the upper bounds of both the fronts provide for a majority (130 for the DMK and 120 for the rival). Similarly, the CNN IBN post-poll survey (which was not an exit poll) has an upper bound for the DMK-led front (114) which is just four shy of a majority. Analysing the outcome of the 2001 elections in Tamil Nadu, this author had indicated the possibility of a Kerala-style front driven political system taking shape in Tamil Nadu. If the exit polls are any indication, the die could have been cast. Tamil Nadu, once a state that gave decisive results, is going towards coalition politics. Both the alliances, the AIADMK and DMK, have balanced themselves out geographically and numerically. With such a close contest, the first-past-the-post system could often throw up surprises. Often with a significant difference in vote share as high as 4%, the partners could end up in a tie. This was the scenario in Uttar Pradesh in 1993. With a vote share difference of 4%, the BJP as well as the SP-BSP combine wound up with the same tally. This is the same reason why the Tweedledum-Tweedledee phenomenon in Kerala could also be in for an upset. The state represents a still more challenging picture with CNN IBN projecting a one percent vote share difference between the winner and the loser. This could mean a narrow win for either alliance, the UDF or the LDF. It should surprise none that while the CNN IBN survey predicts better chances for the LDF (69-77), the rest project better chances for the UDF (69-77). Most other exit polls project more than 80 seats for the UDF. In both the states - Kerala and Tamil Nadu - it is the leadership that matters most. In most contests, where the two fronts are within a narrow range of each other, it is the popularity rating of the leaders that starts mattering and that is what decides the outcome. That could be a reason why in both the states, in two out of three opinion polls, the current opposition alliance has an edge. However, the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system could always throw up a surprise. Assam represents a case of complete fragmentation of the polity as well as of regional forces who have committed bases in pockets. One, therefore, sees the AIUDF holding fort in some areas while the Congress picking up lesser seats and ending up with a tally of about 40-45 , according to the HeadlinesToday and C-Voter Opinion Polls.  However, the CNN IBN survey puts the Congress above the halfway mark at 64-72, which perhaps represents some consolidation in favour of the Congress. It also represents what could happen if the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU) reaches an all-time low, which appears to be the case in Assam. These polls represent comprehensive lessons for any student of psephology . Almost every state calls for a different interpretation of the mandate and hence the variety of results we see across various agencies. Other than Bengal, in none of the other three states do all the polls speak in the same voice. Friday the 13th, when counting is due, will truly throw up many surprises.