BSP-Cong handshake in Uttar Pradesh: unlikely but fruitful?

By Ratan Mani Lal Lucknow: With the notification for the 2014 Lok Sabha election expected to be just a week or two away, the political air in Lucknow is thick with the talk of the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party coming together in some form to check the onslaught of the Narendra Modi juggernaut. Although both parties stoutly deny that any such initiative is even being considered on their part, electoral arithmetic indicates that such an arrangement could indeed be under discussion, especially when the matrix of caste and religion dominates all other factors in Uttar Pradesh. Recent surveys indicate that the BJP could well be on way to winning 41 seats in the state, though it would still be far below its all-time high tally of 57 in 1998. The handling of the Muzaffarnagar riots and the series of announcements for minorities’ welfare by the Samajwadi Party government have polarized the majority community in the BJP’s favour. [caption id=“attachment_1404507” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] Although the turnout in Narendra Modi’s rally has been impressive largely because of his promise of ushering in an era of shining economic activity if the party is voted to power, the lack of allies and the continuing antipathy of Muslims have emerged as dampener to his ambitions of becoming the next Prime Minister. Taking advantage of this weakness in the BJP’s flank, the idea of a Dalit-Muslim combine would seem attractive for both BSP and Congress. It may well turn out to upset the BJP’s march and also further reduce the SP’s chances, even as the ruling party is fast losing the support of the Muslims. The most plausible reason for such an alliance to happen is the importance of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh. Out of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state, Muslims are estimated to constitute over 20 percent of the electorate in about 23 seats, especially in western UP. These seats include Pilibhit, Rampur, Bareilly, Badaun, Bijnor, Moradabad, Meerut, Sambhal, Amroha, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur. The communal riots of August-September last year have led to some polarisation of votes in these areas and the Muslims are looking for an alternative after their disillusionment with the Samajwadi party government’s handling of the riots and its aftermath. In eastern UP, Muslims are supposed to have a decisive edge in about a dozen seats that include Bahraich, Gonda, Sravasti, Balrampur, Domariaganj and Azamgarh. In these places too, polarization seems to have had some impact after the show of strength by the firebrand BJP leader Yogi Adityanath of Gorakhpur. The BSP played its part carefully during the troubled days of Muzaffarnagar. Its leaders openly supported the Muslim community with its leaders also being named in police reports for giving inflammatory speeches. The party was also vehement in its criticism of the SP government’s handling of the riots and the relief for the victims. Ground reports from Muzaffarnagar and Shamli during those days suggested that the BSP had been successful to some extent in winning the trust of the community. Muslims have in the past remained wary of Mayawati as she had formed a government in the state on three occasions with the BJP’s help. But Modi’s rise – attributed by many in the Muslim community to Mulayam’s actions – has forced the community to rethink about their support to SP. According to one estimate, Dalits and Muslims constitute a little less than 50 per cent of the electorate in 45-odd seats. In case of a BSP-Congress alliance, Muslim votes will gravitate significantly from SP towards this alliance. It may lead to a major fall in SP’s vote share, causing a reduction in the SP’s seats from the existing 23. The Congress, weakened and devoid of any electoral direction despite the Rahul Gandhi hoardings all over the state, is clutching at any straw that it thinks might help it retain a double-digit figure in the coming election. Its association with the BSP just might give it advantage-by-association with a Dalit party, as well suggest an alternative for Muslims. But then Mayawati is not easy to deal with and to forge an alliance, she would set terms that ultimately benefit her party. However, sources in the Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee (UPCC) are vehement in their denial of any such move. “The Congress does not have any transferable votes that it can give to any ally, then why should the BSP be interested? The Congress, too, does not stand to gain much from such an alliance. The possibility of the two parties joining hands is highly unlikely,” says Hilal Naqvi of the UPCC. However, he admits that adjustment on some seats could be a possibility but hastens to add that it is for the party high command to decide. The state BJP also feels the same way but with a different set of reasons. “Mayawati is not known for entertaining any pre-poll arrangement, and has always been keen for a post-result alliance. The BSP as well as SP have been openly saying that they want to become power centres, claiming that any future government could not be formed without their participation. This indicates that the BSP would like to keep all options open,” says Vijay Bahadur Pathak, spokesman of the state BJP. He goes on to say that the Congress, on the other hand, is trying everything to win the trust of the people, and since every party is trying to win over Muslim votes, the Congress would also try to get them as some Muslim votes were expected to shift from SP towards such an alliance, if it happens at all. As for the BSP, although no party leader is willing to speak as per their party policy, one of them on condition of anonymity that the BSP would stand to gain nothing from such an alliance. “Behenji (Mayawati) has said time and again that in case of any alliance our votes may get transferred to the other party, but the reverse never happens. As it is, our party is in a very strong position to win a far greater number of seats than what we have at present.” But BSP leaders agree in private conversation that if Congress and BSP were to contest together, they would prevent a formidable challenge to the BJP. As both Congress and BSP have hinted, a pre-poll “adjustment” might well lead to an alliance after the results. And whichever way the result goes, neither of them would be complaining.