BJP's star rising in east and south - but it won't win many seats

The big stories of this election may be about who wins and who will form a government in Delhi after 16 May, but there is an interesting story to tell on the arrival of the BJP in the east and south as a third or fourth factor this time. The Lokniti-CNN-IBN Election Tracker poll shows the trend unmistakably – though this is not going to do much for the BJP’s seat tally in the Lok Sabha race. The story so far: the BJP is a factor in Karnataka and some part of Assam, but not in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. [caption id=“attachment_1462393” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AFP[/caption] The pre-poll survey suggests that this may be about to change. We can credit this to the Modi factor or the Congress decline, but the trend in unmistakable. In Assam, the BJP is already the second largest party – but a distant one. It lags far behind the Congress’ 44 percent vote share with 19 percent, based on the Election Tracker survey. But this puts its ahead of regional party AGP and the Muslim-dominated AIUDF. Post-election it could become the node against Congress. In West Bengal , the party is No 4 with 12 percent, while Trinamool, Left Front and Congress come in with 38 percent, 25 percent and 16 percent respectively. But the Congress is slipping, and its votes could either migrate to the Trinamool or the BJP, assuming these are non-Left votes. As a distinct non-Trinamool, non-Left choice, the BJP stands a chance of becoming the third force after the elections. In Kerala , the BJP is already No 3 with an 11 percent vote (the UDF and LDF get 45 percent and 36 percent in the tracker poll). Since almost all Kerala parties are in the 10-20 percent vote share range, if the BJP retains it voter base, it has a good chance of playing a key role in any front that needs that extra vote in future. The party is becoming relevant – especially if it can expand its Ezhava base, which is currently with the Left. Narendra Modi is making the right overtures, though they may not yield relevant results this time. The most interesting possibilities in the south and east for the BJP exist in Tamil Nadu and Odisha. In Tamil Nadu , the vote is now so fragmented beyond the AIADMK and DMK (which are capable of getting around 30 percent each when the wind is blowing in their direction), that there is space for a third alternative. This has been created with the BJP, DMDK, MDMK, PMK and one or two smaller splinters. The interesting thing is this front’s vote share is just below that of the DMK at 22 percent against the former’s 23 percent (the AIADMK is at 32 percent). If the DMK implodes, as it seems to be doing with the estrangement of MK Azhagiri from MK Stalin, his step-brother, the BJP-led Front may just manage to pull off some surprise wins this time. Earlier, the Congress was key to one of the main fronts – AIADMK or DMK – winning. Now the BJP and the smaller parties are also looking relevant. In Odisha, the tracker poll puts the BJP tantalisingly close to Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in the Lok Sabha poll, trailing just four points behind BJD with 30 percent. The BJP is thus ahead of the Congress’ 26 percent. Odisha is thus also becoming a three-horse race – and this could have repercussions for the future. At some point, if alternatives to Naveen Patnaik become necessary, the BJP may be bidding for that space. It is in Andhra Pradesh that the BJP’s position looks bedraggled – though it is probably tying up with the Telugu Desam this time in both Telangana and Seemandhra. The tracker poll shows the BJP at a distant No 5 with just an 8 percent voteshare (TDP 29 percent, YSR Congress 21 percent, Congress 18 percent, and TRS 13 percent). If we take Telangana and Seemandhra separately, however, the BJP comes in a distant No 4 (10 percent) in Telangana, behind Congress and TRS, with 35 percent and 34 percent respectively, and TDP (13 percent). The BJP is relevant only as a junior partner in these two states. As a party that has always supported the idea of Telangana, it is surprising that it comes so far behind three parties even in Telangana. Clearly, the party organisation has been poor and inarticulate. But the net takeaway from this electoral tracker is simple: the BJP is becoming a factor in the east and the south. Post-polls, it will need a viable organisational plan to build on this beginning. But at 10 percent plus vote share all over the east and south, it will always be worth partnering. It is no longer an untouchable in the south.