BJP's Mission 44 in Jammu & Kashmir: The real reason for cancelled Indo-Pak talks?

Hidden between the lines of the Narendra Modi government’s surprising move to cancel Indo-Pak secretary-level talks is a possible electoral strategy for Assembly elections coming up in Jammu & Kashmir later this year. Simple electoral arithmetic shows that Kashmir region in the state offers little for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has set for itself the ambitious ‘Mission 44’ goal in the border state – targetting a simple majority for the party in the 87-member Assembly. But Jammu promises rich dividends. [caption id=“attachment_1508537” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Rajnath Singh and Modi during an election rally in Jammu.  Firstpost[/caption] Having swept the Jammu region in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP expects to bag most of the 37 Assembly seats up for grabs here. In addition, there are four seats in Ladakh, one of which belongs to BJP MP Thupstan Chhewang, who scratched out a narrow victory in the Lok Sabha polls.Any doubts about the BJP's focus on Ladakh apart from Jammu , should have been banished by the presence of senior BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi in Kargil for three days ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the region on August 13. Kargil is one of the Ladakh region’s four Assembly seats, and the one that could be toughest for the party – Chhewang’s poorest polling came from Kargil. The Jammu-Udhampur belt and Ladakh’s four Assembly seats account for 41 seats, bringing the BJP tantalisingly close to its Mission 44 goal if it is able to bag all of these seats, a possibility party president Amit Shah considers to be bright. As for the other 3 seats, one assumes Shah has one of the minority parties in mind as a potential ally Against that backdrop, the MEA’s contention that the talks were called off because Pakistan has continued to meddle in India’s internal affairs appears somewhat laughable. After all, Pakistan diplomats talking to Hurriyat leaders ahead of key Indo-Pak talks is not a novelty, it has indeed grown into a tradition of sorts. As The Telegraph reports, “In the capital’s familiar circles where foreign policy is a staple of analysis and discussions, nobody is taking seriously the government’s claim that the August 25 bilateral talks in Islamabad were called off because Pakistan’s high commissioner met Kashmiri separatists as a prelude to the talks between foreign secretaries.” Pakistan envoy Abdul Basit’s meeting with Shabir Shah of the Hurriyat was just “business as usual” for the blindsided diplomat. The Telegraph report also contends that the suspension of talks has to be seen in conjunction with the BJP’s manifesto that made candid remarks, as it has in previous election years, about the party’s commitment to abrogating Article 370 of the Constitution that grants special status to the state of Jammu & Kashmir. The controversy over Article 370 was ignited within the new government’s first few days in power with Minister of State in the PMO Jitendra Singh commenting that the “process has begun”. Incidentally, Singh is the MP from Udhampur, from where he defeated senior Congressman Ghulam Nabi Azad comfortably. The first time MP’s elevation to Minister of State status is certainly also symbolic of what the BJP wants to achieve in Jammu and Kashmir. Seen in this light, the voices of anguish in Jammu & Kashmir expressing hurt and disappointment at the cancellation of the talks may not be overreacting. The separatists, the National Conference and the PDP have all roundly questioned the integrity of the government in resolving the Kashmir question. (That may have been a valid argument against talks during the UPA-era too, given that talks have mostly ended up being ends in themselves and have achieved little, but that is another argument.) This Telegraph report quotes separatist leader Yasin Malik as saying that the BJP has exposed its hardline agenda. “Narendra Modi, who wants to emerge as the only Mr Right in India, is telling Pakistan that Kashmir is not an issue he wants to discuss — his only interest is to promote trade and commerce. This is an unacceptable position for us Kashmiris, and surely also for Pakistan,” he was quoted as saying. The same report adds that “belligerence on Pakistan works as good electoral strategy” in the Jammu region. Modi has not visited the Valley, though he made two trips to the state in as many months, a first for an Indian prime minister. A poll boycott in the Valley may mean little to the BJP, so long as Mission 44 appears within reach from Jammu-Udhampur-Ladakh alone. The cancelled talks may be only collateral damage.