Bihar polls: Here's why BJP's self-goals might yet give Nitish Kumar the last laugh

If the BJP-led coalition does not fare well in the next two phases of the Bihar polls, with the next one barely a week away on 28 October, it will be because of the self-goals it has been scoring. The murmur is that it has not exactly excelled in the first two phases, when everything seemed to be going its way before the elections were announced. Eight of the 10 prepoll surveys gave the BJP-led coalition the edge, but it is not possible for it to count its chickens before they hatch. This is going to be a “wave election” where minor shifts in the undecided vote will give one side an overwhelming seat sweep. A three percent vote margin can give either side a majority. With three phases still to go (the last one is not BJP’s natural territory), this election is still too early to call, but the straws in the wind seem to suggest that Nitish Kumar can entertain some hopes of pulling off an upset victory. The reason is this: Nitish has not put a foot wrong if one discounts his unprincipled tie-up with his former bete noire, ‘jungle raj" hero and fodder scam convict Lalu Prasad. But the fear of Modi’s growing power is deemed by many voters to be an adequate reason to enter into marriages of convenience. Hence, in the ultimate analysis, Lalu may not do enough damage to Nitish Kumar’s credibility since the latter is already the Mahaganthbandhan’s declared CM candidate. [caption id=“attachment_2477130” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  File photo. Image courtesy: PTI[/caption] Nitish Kumar is making the most of his understated and humble image and the fact that there is a significant stop-Modi mood in the electorate, especially among minorities and some caste groups that fear marginalisation (the Yadavs, in particular). That’s a solid 32 percent block vote that Nitish can harvest in his combo’s favour - not to speak of the fact voters have a by and large positive opinion of his performance over the past 10 years. This is why the next two phases - with 112 seats in contention and where the BJP scored most of its gains in 2010 in alliance with Nitish - are crucial. But it could have done without some self-goals scored by people allegedly on its team. The first self-goal is Mohan Bhagwat’s call for some rethink on reservations. The issue is not the idea itself, but its timing and the RSS chief’s failure to articulate what precisely he meant. Given that Narendra Modi has set great store by his OBC and Dalit outreach, Bhagwat gave Modi’s opponents a good reason to spread the fear that the centre will tinker with quota entitlements for OBCs. If this factor lingers in voters’ minds, Bhagwat can be partly blamed for any NDA setback in Bihar. The second self-goal was scored by the BJP itself - and well before the polls. This was its decision to not fight the elections under a declared CM candidate. The BJP has wrongly concluded after its wins in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir that Narendra Modi’s popularity is enough to carry the day. The truth is, after the initial tailwinds provided by Modi’s stunning May 2014 success, state elections have reverted to their old norm where local leadership and issues are decisive. Modi’s popularity matters, but it needs to be complemented by a visible local leadership to give the BJP credibility with voters and an assurance that Bihar will be ruled from Patna and not Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal’s stunning victory in Delhi should have given the BJP food for thought on using Modi endlessly as the trump card. Has the party leadership learnt nothing from that defeat? The fact is that the BJP’s tallest leader in Bihar is Sushil Modi, who not only has had administrative experience as Deputy CM under Nitish Kumar, but also the credibility to counter-balance the latter’s clean image and understated charisma. No other Bihar leader fits the CM image better than Sushil Modi. The BJP’s slogan could have been “Parivartan ka partnership, Dilli mein Narendra Modi, Bihar mein Sushil Modi “. Also, when the BJP’s war-cry is “sabka saath, sabka vikas” - a non-caste based slogan - what is the logic in trying to keep all castes happy by keeping the chief ministership a secret? Is this not tantamount to playing the caste card in hushed whispers? In not naming a CM candidate well in advance, the BJP has not only dimmed the possibility of giving Sushil Modi a chance to prove his worth on the campaign trail, but given Nitish Kumar the opportunity of positioning himself as the face of Bihar while BJP has a face from Delhi. He can harness Bihari pride more than the BJP. This is self-goal No 2. The third self-goal is the excessive focus on Lalu’s negatives. This could backfire as it now makes the Yadavs feel their power is under threat, and simultaneously leaves Nitish Kumar free to bask in the implied BJP praise for him. If Nitish Kumar’s only blemish is his alliance with Lalu, it implies that minus Lalu he is a good leader. The BJP is making a serious mistake by making Lalu a martyr and Nitish Kumar a votary of good governance by default and contrast. The beef controversy will not affect the BJP too much, but it does make the Muslim vote consolidate fully behind the Mahaganthbandhan - which is not in the BJP’s interest. A focus on development instead of beef would have allowed Asaduddin Owaisi to challenge the claims of economic progress for Muslims under Nitish Kumar and Lalu, but the beef controversy makes Muslims revert to their age-old fears of Hindu domination. This is obvious from the near exit of Owaisi from the field. After promising to fight more than 20 seats in Muslim-dominated areas, he is focusing on only six - a sure signal that he does not rate his prospects high as even a spoiler in these elections. The beef issue and the lynching of a Muslim man in Dadri will be another half-self-goal. It only loses them a vote they never had, but allows the JD(U)-RJD to claim a walkover in Seemanchal. That’s three-and-a-half self-goals for the BJP. It needs to change tack fast. Or Nitish Kumar will have the last laugh.