After big win in Assam, BJP eyes Nagaland; seeks to take advantage of rift in ruling party

When Sarbananda Sonowal took over as the Chief Minister of Assam, speculation was rife in Kohima that a change was imminent in Naga politics. “Just three days before the Assam election result was declared, Neiphiu Rio, former Chief Minister of Nagaland and an MP of Naga People’s Front was suspended from his party on allegation of committing anti-party activities,” said Neingulo Krome, a Naga intellectual in Kohima. “By the time it became clear that a berth in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet would be vacant as Sarbananda Sonowal would be resigning from the post of Union Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs and would be taking up the role of the Chief Minister of Assam," added Krome. Analysts say that a dissident Rio with the power of a central minister was seen as a potential threat to the present Naga People Front regime which has been in power for the third consecutive term in Nagaland. [caption id=“attachment_1539067” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Former Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio. AFP[/caption] The return of the native The commotion of dissidence that shook TR Zeliang government in Nagaland last year, was seen as an attempt by Rio to return to state politics. Of the 38 Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) MLAs, 22 expressed no confidence on Zeliang’s leadership, to the Governor. Rio threw his weight on the dissident side. But Zeliang, who enjoyed the support of only 16 NPF MLAs, called for an all party government. All the eight Congress MLA’s joined the NPF and along with seven Independents supported him and complied to his appeal. Some office bearers in the BJP state unit suggested that they should go with the dissident NPF MLAs, as they are the majority. But the central leadership decided not to disrupt the alliance with NPF and supported Zeliang. However, by that time BJP had already gained three MLAs who defected from the Nationalist Congress Party and the saffron party’s number in the state assembly rose to four. Dissident NPF MLAs were left with no option other than to support Zeliang when the vote of confidence was taken. In this vote, of the 60 MLAs in Nagaland Assembly, 59 favoured Zeliang. An imminent change Though the extension of the ceasefire agreement with revised ground rules signed with the NSCN(IM) and Government of India in 2001 caused much resentment in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, it saw swelling of Naga nationalist emotion in Nagaland. Neiphiu Rio and his party NPF rode to power on that emotion in 2003 Assembly election. “It was the first time Rio became the Chief Minister of Nagaland. He led his party to victory for three consecutive terms thereafter,” said a Congress leader. During Rio’s tenure, Naga identity politics also found an economic implication. He claimed the rights of the Nagas over the oil and natural gas reserves of Nagaland. It is still a bone of contention between central and state government. Neiphiu Rio became the tallest leader in Naga politics. “ In 2014, Rio declared that to move the Naga cause ahead he needed to be a Member of Parliament. He won the lone Lok Sabha seat of the state has and left for Delhi handing over his position of Chief Minister to colleague TR Zeliang,” said Mutsikhoyo Yhobu, a leader of Naga Ho Ho, a civil society organisation in Nagaland. “But it seems to be a wrong move,” said Krome. Rio did not get inducted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet. Dissidence led by him to purportedly return to state politics also failed. “But he is not a person who will sit tight and let it be,” said another Naga intellectual. “Whatever Rio does to claim back his empire is to be done before assembly election that will be held in 2018,” said Yhobu, Naga Ho Ho leader. He also sees Rio toppling the Zeliang government in the near future. Some others see Rio coming back either as a leader of a new regional party or a BJP leader. These are the only options left for him because,“Rio seemed to have tried to reconcile with his party but his efforts hardly bore any fruit,” said Krome. These speculations in the Naga civil society suggest an imminent political change in Nagaland. Waiting for Godot “Clans, tribes, village and range also play a major role in Naga identity politics. They influence voting pattern more than any ideology,” said Dr Temsula Ao, an ethnographer, writer and a Sahitya Akademi Award winner. “But being the most baptized state in the world, Nagaland rarely has any chance of accepting Hindutva ideology,” said Naga Ho Ho leader Yhobu. Church plays a significant role in Naga politics. “In the Sunday sermons, people are often advised on whom to vote and whom not to,” said a BJP leader. A Congress leader said that the underground groups also play a major role in the election. After Congress being rooted out, with all the eight MLAs of it’s party joining NPF, BJP with it’s government at the Centre seems to be the only national party to gain from the imminent political change in Nagaland. But Nagaland BJP finds itself in a situation similar to that described in Samuel Beckett’s famous play ‘Waiting For Godot’, where two characters wait for Godot, without any certainty of his coming. “In Assam, we gained power because we took the advantage of the rift in the ruling party and inducted people from it. We have advised our central leadership to replicate the same principle here. For ruling NPF is now broken into two factions,” said a local BJP leader. “Though 59 out of 60 MLAs voted for Zeliang in the vote of confidence motion, most of the NPF MLAs did that only to prevent constitutional crisis and also to save themselves from being suspended by the party,” said Krome. “We need a tall leader who will not only be able to overshadow BJP’s Hindutva ideology in the state but also will be able to gain acceptance from people, church and extremist groups. We have suggested the names of five such leaders,” said the BJP leader. “All of them are in the NPF and all of them are more or less near to the crack line in NPF,” he added. “ The first one definitely is Neiphiu Rio, who still enjoys support of majority of the NPF MLAs and people from various sections of the society,” he further said. The second leader he says who could be inducted is Kaito Aye, whom Rio projected as the Chief Minister candidate during the tumultuous time dissidence. Tokheho Yepthomi, who is a Zeliang confidante and Chief Minister TR Zeliang, also figures in the list. “Noke, a Rio camp MLA is the fifth person in the list,” he said. Now who will be the Godot? Whether BJP will really find a Godot ? These are the questions only time to answer.